Closing spread
PIT -2.5
Total
34
Model margin
+1.3est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.031EPA / play-0.003
- 42.9%Success rate41.7%
- +0.022EPA / dropback+0.037
- -0.103EPA / rush-0.044
- 7.8%Explosive rate9.0%
- +0.13CPOE-2.44
- 41.3%Third-down rate36.7%
- 54.8%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
- 1.61Points / drive1.83
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 11–10 since 1999
PIT have won 5 straight. Meetings average 44 points. TEN are 9-12 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | PIT–TEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEN | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PIT | Q1 13:35 | 6 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TEN | Q1 10:29 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PIT | Q1 8:50 | 5 | 41 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| TEN | Q1 5:56 | 6 | 46 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PIT | Q1 3:13 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TEN | Q1 1:31 | 4 | 17 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| PIT | Q2 14:13 | 3 | 8 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| TEN | Q2 12:50 | 3 | 39 | Touchdown | 0–10 |
| PIT | Q2 11:59 | 10 | 80 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| TEN | Q2 5:40 | 8 | 43 | Punt | 7–10 |
| PIT | Q2 1:43 | 8 | 71 | Missed field goal | 7–10 |
| PIT | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 7–10 |
| TEN | Q3 13:12 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 7–10 |
| PIT | Q3 11:28 | 4 | 62 | Touchdown | 14–10 |
| TEN | Q3 9:41 | 11 | 79 | Touchdown | 14–17 |
| PIT | Q3 5:05 | 5 | 21 | Turnover | 14–17 |
| TEN | Q3 3:24 | 9 | 35 | Touchdown | 14–24 |
| PIT | Q4 14:57 | 5 | 5 | Punt | 14–24 |
| TEN | Q4 11:30 | 4 | 14 | Punt | 14–24 |
| PIT | Q4 9:04 | 7 | 20 | Punt | 14–24 |
| TEN | Q4 6:29 | 8 | 30 | Punt | 14–24 |
| PIT | Q4 2:26 | 8 | 53 | Opp touchdown | 14–31 |
| PIT | Q4 0:16 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 14–31 |
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 26/40 | 331 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Parker | 18 | 29 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 3 | 28 | 9.3 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 20/29 | 216 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 16 | 69 | 4.3 | 1 |
| LenDale White | 15 | 48 | 3.2 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
2.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.5%
Expected total
41.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.20
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.29