Closing spread
SF -3.5
Total
42
Model margin
+3.2est.
STL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SF lead 31–24–1 since 1999
Meetings average 43.4 points. STL are 23-31-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SF–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 21 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SF | Q1 9:58 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 8:24 | 10 | 30 | Turnover on downs | 0–0 |
| SF | Q1 4:21 | 6 | 34 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| LA | Q1 2:00 | 8 | 57 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| SF | Q2 13:07 | 5 | 53 | Turnover | 3–3 |
| LA | Q2 10:25 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 3–3 |
| SF | Q2 9:21 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 3–3 |
| LA | Q2 9:12 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 3–3 |
| SF | Q2 7:05 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 3–3 |
| LA | Q2 4:46 | 8 | 80 | Touchdown | 3–10 |
| SF | Q2 1:12 | 4 | 13 | Turnover | 3–10 |
| LA | Q2 0:37 | 3 | 43 | Field goal | 3–13 |
| SF | Q2 0:06 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 3–13 |
| SF | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 3–13 |
| LA | Q3 13:25 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 3–13 |
| SF | Q3 11:56 | 3 | -15 | Punt | 3–13 |
| LA | Q3 10:34 | 4 | 6 | Punt | 3–13 |
| SF | Q3 8:15 | 8 | 37 | Turnover | 3–13 |
| LA | Q3 4:41 | 15 | 48 | Field goal | 3–16 |
| SF | Q4 11:36 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 3–16 |
| LA | Q4 10:49 | 6 | 9 | Punt | 3–16 |
| SF | Q4 7:00 | 11 | 75 | Touchdown | 10–16 |
| LA | Q4 4:03 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 10–16 |
| SF | Q4 2:27 | 4 | 62 | Touchdown | 17–16 |
| LA | Q4 1:22 | 8 | 26 | Turnover | 17–16 |
| SF | Q4 0:16 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 17–16 |
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Hill | 18/34 | 216 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Hill | 4 | 45 | 11.3 | 0 |
| DeShaun Foster | 12 | 36 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
6.84%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.7%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.73
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.22
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.