Closing spread
CAR -1
Total
51.5
Model margin
+3.3est.
NO perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Saints
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.066EPA / play+0.120
- 42.5%Success rate48.7%
- +0.073EPA / dropback+0.213
- +0.059EPA / rush-0.043
- 11.3%Explosive rate9.2%
- -1.27CPOE+2.69
- 40.0%Third-down rate49.2%
- 66.7%Red-zone TD rate65.5%
- 1.98Points / drive2.42
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 31–24 since 1999
NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. NO are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CAR–NO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | Q1 15:00 | 11 | 53 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| NO | Q1 8:01 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 3–0 |
| CAR | Q1 7:00 | 8 | 70 | Field goal | 6–0 |
| NO | Q1 2:21 | 9 | 57 | Field goal | 6–3 |
| CAR | Q2 12:35 | 10 | 64 | Field goal | 9–3 |
| NO | Q2 6:56 | 5 | 16 | Turnover | 9–3 |
| CAR | Q2 5:05 | 4 | 29 | Touchdown | 22–3 |
| NO | Q2 3:09 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 23–3 |
| NO | Q2 3:03 | 9 | 90 | Touchdown | 23–10 |
| CAR | Q2 0:40 | 4 | 36 | End of half | 23–10 |
| NO | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 13 | Punt | 23–10 |
| CAR | Q3 12:39 | 5 | 72 | Touchdown | 30–10 |
| NO | Q3 10:02 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 30–10 |
| CAR | Q3 8:21 | 7 | 57 | Missed field goal | 30–10 |
| NO | Q3 3:22 | 10 | 74 | Touchdown | 30–17 |
| CAR | Q4 14:48 | 7 | 39 | Punt | 30–17 |
| NO | Q4 10:07 | 14 | 99 | Touchdown | 30–24 |
| CAR | Q4 5:33 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 30–24 |
| NO | Q4 3:58 | 3 | 45 | Touchdown | 30–31 |
| CAR | Q4 3:11 | 6 | 62 | Field goal | 33–31 |
| NO | Q4 0:01 | 1 | 0 | End of half | 33–31 |
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 14/20 | 250 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAngelo Williams | 25 | 178 | 7.1 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 17 | 56 | 3.3 | 1 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 30/49 | 386 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deuce McAllister | 8 | 40 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Mike Bell | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
2.06%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.0%
Expected total
48.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.84
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.33