Closing spread
PIT -11
Total
33.5
Model margin
+9.5est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
1.7%est.
Win probability
- Steelers
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.155EPA / play-0.031
- 36.2%Success rate42.9%
- -0.205EPA / dropback+0.022
- -0.086EPA / rush-0.103
- 6.7%Explosive rate7.8%
- -11.69CPOE+0.13
- 33.5%Third-down rate41.3%
- 29.2%Red-zone TD rate54.8%
- 1.05Points / drive1.61
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 42–13–1 since 1999
Meetings average 38.9 points. PIT are 29-25-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bruce Gradkowski | 5/16 | 18 | 0 | 2 |
| Josh Cribbs | 1/2 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 23 | 94 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Josh Cribbs | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Bruce Gradkowski | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jerome Harrison | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 9/14 | 110 | 0 | 1 |
| Byron Leftwich | 7/12 | 80 | 0 | 0 |
| Dennis Dixon | 1/1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Parker | 23 | 116 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Mewelde Moore | 4 | 23 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Gary Russell | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Carey Davis | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Byron Leftwich | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 1 |
| Dennis Dixon | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
1.70%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
73.4%
Expected total
39.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.17
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+1.88
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+9.54