Closing spread
PHI -2.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
+6.0est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.018EPA / play+0.004
- 41.9%Success rate43.8%
- -0.021EPA / dropback+0.039
- -0.015EPA / rush-0.055
- 10.2%Explosive rate8.3%
- +3.06CPOE-1.08
- 43.2%Third-down rate41.3%
- 67.6%Red-zone TD rate50.9%
- 1.67Points / drive1.73
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 29–26 since 1999
Meetings average 44.8 points. PHI are 27-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 21/39 | 183 | 0 | 1 |
| Jason Witten | 1/1 | 42 | 0 | 0 |
| Brooks Bollinger | 1/1 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tashard Choice | 13 | 56 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Marion Barber | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Tony Romo | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Terrell Owens | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 12/21 | 175 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Correll Buckhalter | 10 | 63 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Brian Westbrook | 13 | 50 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Kyle Eckel | 8 | 22 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 1 |
| Kevin Kolb | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
7.37%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.9%
Expected total
40.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.58
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+5.98