Closing spread
PHI -2.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
+6.0est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.018EPA / play+0.004
- 41.9%Success rate43.8%
- -0.021EPA / dropback+0.039
- -0.015EPA / rush-0.055
- 10.2%Explosive rate8.3%
- +3.06CPOE-1.08
- 43.2%Third-down rate41.3%
- 67.6%Red-zone TD rate50.9%
- 1.67Points / drive1.73
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 29–27 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45 points. PHI are 27-28-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DAL–PHI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 29 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| DAL | Q1 12:54 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PHI | Q1 11:51 | 6 | 32 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| DAL | Q1 8:50 | 14 | 61 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| PHI | Q1 0:35 | 6 | 68 | Touchdown | 3–10 |
| DAL | Q2 12:16 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 3–10 |
| PHI | Q2 11:01 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 3–10 |
| DAL | Q2 9:04 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 3–10 |
| PHI | Q2 7:22 | 11 | 71 | Touchdown | 3–17 |
| DAL | Q2 2:03 | 4 | 16 | Turnover | 3–17 |
| PHI | Q2 1:04 | 7 | 16 | Touchdown | 3–24 |
| DAL | Q2 0:13 | 0 | 0 | Turnover | 3–27 |
| PHI | Q2 0:03 | 0 | 0 | Turnover | 3–27 |
| DAL | Q3 15:00 | 9 | 59 | Opp touchdown | 3–34 |
| DAL | Q3 11:23 | 8 | 85 | Opp touchdown | 3–41 |
| DAL | Q3 8:11 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 3–41 |
| PHI | Q3 7:52 | 3 | 9 | Field goal | 3–44 |
| DAL | Q3 6:04 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 3–44 |
| PHI | Q3 5:07 | 7 | 57 | Missed field goal | 3–44 |
| DAL | Q4 14:56 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 3–44 |
| PHI | Q4 13:52 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 3–44 |
| DAL | Q4 12:12 | 9 | 59 | Field goal | 6–44 |
| PHI | Q4 7:43 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 6–44 |
| DAL | Q4 5:19 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 6–44 |
| PHI | Q4 3:16 | 3 | 19 | End of half | 6–44 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 21/39 | 183 | 0 | 1 |
| Jason Witten | 1/1 | 42 | 0 | 0 |
| Brooks Bollinger | 1/1 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tashard Choice | 13 | 56 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Marion Barber | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Tony Romo | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Terrell Owens | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 12/21 | 175 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Correll Buckhalter | 10 | 63 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Brian Westbrook | 13 | 50 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Kyle Eckel | 8 | 22 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 1 |
| Kevin Kolb | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
7.37%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.9%
Expected total
40.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.58
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+5.98