Closing spread
SD -7
Total
50.5
Model margin
+3.2est.
SD perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chargers
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 33–23 since 1999
DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.8 points. SD are 25-26-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DEN–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 18 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| DEN | Q1 11:41 | 10 | 73 | Touchdown | 6–3 |
| LAC | Q1 7:36 | 8 | 66 | Touchdown | 6–10 |
| DEN | Q1 2:52 | 4 | 17 | Punt | 6–10 |
| LAC | Q1 0:42 | 8 | 72 | Touchdown | 6–17 |
| DEN | Q2 11:30 | 5 | 4 | Punt | 6–17 |
| LAC | Q2 9:42 | 10 | 73 | Touchdown | 6–24 |
| DEN | Q2 3:32 | 7 | 56 | Turnover | 6–24 |
| LAC | Q2 1:07 | 5 | 23 | End of half | 6–24 |
| DEN | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 73 | Touchdown | 13–24 |
| LAC | Q3 12:47 | 5 | 69 | Touchdown | 13–31 |
| DEN | Q3 9:59 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 13–37 |
| LAC | Q3 9:48 | 1 | 14 | Touchdown | 13–38 |
| DEN | Q3 9:41 | 13 | 58 | Turnover on downs | 13–38 |
| LAC | Q3 4:13 | 6 | 20 | Punt | 13–38 |
| DEN | Q3 0:50 | 7 | 75 | Touchdown | 21–38 |
| LAC | Q4 13:01 | 6 | 66 | Touchdown | 21–45 |
| DEN | Q4 9:47 | 6 | 16 | Turnover on downs | 21–45 |
| LAC | Q4 8:18 | 11 | 70 | Touchdown | 21–52 |
| DEN | Q4 1:15 | 4 | 34 | End of half | 21–52 |
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 33/49 | 316 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatum Bell | 8 | 86 | 10.8 | 2 |
| Jay Cutler | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
4.81%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.7%
Expected total
46.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.73
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.22
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.