Closing spread
GB -11
Total
41
Model margin
+8.9est.
GB perspective
Push chance
1.7%est.
Win probability
- Packers
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.162EPA / play+0.051
- 36.3%Success rate43.8%
- -0.203EPA / dropback+0.134
- -0.092EPA / rush-0.072
- 8.2%Explosive rate8.3%
- -3.61CPOE+4.24
- 28.7%Third-down rate44.1%
- 72.0%Red-zone TD rate66.2%
- 1.21Points / drive1.94
- 2.9%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 36–19 since 1999
Meetings average 45.8 points. GB are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DET–GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GB | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 17 | Turnover on downs | 0–0 |
| DET | Q1 11:23 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| GB | Q1 9:47 | 3 | 79 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| DET | Q1 8:49 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–7 |
| GB | Q1 7:21 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–7 |
| DET | Q1 6:35 | 5 | 11 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| GB | Q1 4:12 | 6 | 41 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| DET | Q1 1:29 | 12 | 48 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| GB | Q2 11:17 | 6 | 53 | Punt | 7–14 |
| DET | Q2 7:54 | 9 | 49 | Punt | 7–14 |
| GB | Q2 3:14 | 5 | 39 | Punt | 7–14 |
| DET | Q2 0:22 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–14 |
| GB | Q2 0:00 | 0 | 0 | Missed field goal | 7–14 |
| DET | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 29 | Punt | 7–14 |
| GB | Q3 11:42 | 1 | 1 | Turnover | 7–14 |
| DET | Q3 11:36 | 2 | 16 | Touchdown | 14–14 |
| GB | Q3 10:20 | 7 | 47 | Turnover on downs | 14–14 |
| DET | Q3 7:24 | 7 | 19 | Punt | 14–14 |
| GB | Q3 4:22 | 11 | 62 | Field goal | 14–17 |
| DET | Q4 13:34 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 14–17 |
| GB | Q4 12:22 | 7 | 36 | Touchdown | 14–24 |
| DET | Q4 8:34 | 4 | 80 | Touchdown | 21–24 |
| GB | Q4 7:32 | 1 | 71 | Touchdown | 21–31 |
| DET | Q4 7:16 | 15 | 47 | Turnover | 21–31 |
| GB | Q4 2:45 | 6 | 38 | End of half | 21–31 |
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 21/31 | 308 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Grant | 19 | 106 | 5.6 | 0 |
| DeShawn Wynn | 7 | 106 | 15.1 | 1 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
1.69%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
72.0%
Expected total
46.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+6.52
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+8.93