Closing spread
BAL -10.5
Total
37.5
Model margin
+5.8est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Ravens
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.004EPA / play-0.018
- 44.6%Success rate40.6%
- +0.013EPA / dropback-0.007
- -0.032EPA / rush-0.027
- 8.0%Explosive rate7.9%
- +3.08CPOE-0.33
- 41.7%Third-down rate41.3%
- 62.2%Red-zone TD rate50.4%
- 1.65Points / drive1.61
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 11–7 since 1999
Meetings average 38.7 points. BAL are 7-7-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Garrard | 14/25 | 127 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 23 | 78 | 3.4 | 0 |
| David Garrard | 4 | 40 | 10.0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 17/23 | 297 | 0 | 0 |
| Troy Smith | 1/2 | 25 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Parmele | 2 | 27 | 13.5 | 0 |
| Willis McGahee | 4 | 24 | 6.0 | 1 |
| Derrick Mason | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
1.59%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.4%
Expected total
42.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.46
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.16
- Expected margin+5.79