Closing spread
CIN -1.5
Total
40
Model margin
+2.5est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.051EPA / play-0.172
- 42.2%Success rate38.0%
- -0.019EPA / dropback-0.150
- -0.107EPA / rush-0.208
- 7.7%Explosive rate5.1%
- -3.09CPOE-3.29
- 37.7%Third-down rate35.3%
- 60.9%Red-zone TD rate45.7%
- 1.48Points / drive0.93
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 9–6 since 1999
KC have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.1 points. CIN are 9-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Thigpen | 19/36 | 191 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Johnson | 10 | 18 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Tyler Thigpen | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 18/30 | 129 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Benson | 25 | 111 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Andre Caldwell | 4 | 49 | 12.3 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 7 | 29 | 4.1 | 0 |
| James Johnson | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.7%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.01
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.48