Closing spread
NYJ -2.5
Total
43
Model margin
+2.0est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.084EPA / play+0.038
- 46.3%Success rate47.0%
- +0.181EPA / dropback+0.031
- -0.039EPA / rush+0.048
- 8.6%Explosive rate9.0%
- +4.74CPOE+3.75
- 37.1%Third-down rate40.6%
- 69.4%Red-zone TD rate55.9%
- 1.69Points / drive1.85
- 1.2%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 29–26 since 1999
MIA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.9 points. NYJ are 28-24-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIA–NYJ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 18 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIA | Q1 11:50 | 6 | 17 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NYJ | Q1 7:52 | 2 | 4 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| MIA | Q1 7:03 | 11 | 43 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NYJ | Q1 0:04 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIA | Q2 13:45 | 6 | 15 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| NYJ | Q2 10:38 | 8 | 51 | Touchdown | 0–6 |
| MIA | Q2 6:47 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–6 |
| NYJ | Q2 5:37 | 3 | 13 | Punt | 0–6 |
| MIA | Q2 4:30 | 6 | 60 | Touchdown | 7–6 |
| NYJ | Q2 2:18 | 1 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 14–6 |
| NYJ | Q2 2:03 | 8 | 72 | Field goal | 14–9 |
| MIA | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 15 | Turnover on downs | 14–9 |
| NYJ | Q3 12:35 | 5 | 28 | Touchdown | 14–17 |
| MIA | Q3 10:33 | 6 | 80 | Touchdown | 21–17 |
| NYJ | Q3 7:16 | 6 | 22 | Punt | 21–17 |
| MIA | Q3 4:42 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 21–17 |
| NYJ | Q3 1:59 | 8 | 37 | Punt | 21–17 |
| MIA | Q4 12:41 | 5 | 24 | Field goal | 24–17 |
| NYJ | Q4 9:20 | 9 | 59 | Turnover | 24–17 |
| MIA | Q4 4:53 | 8 | 40 | Punt | 24–17 |
| NYJ | Q4 0:17 | 2 | 20 | Turnover | 24–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Pennington | 22/30 | 200 | 2 | 0 |
| Ronnie Brown | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronnie Brown | 11 | 57 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 10 | 50 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Chad Pennington | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 20/40 | 233 | 1 | 3 |
| Brad Smith | 1/1 | 18 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon Washington | 10 | 60 | 6.0 | 1 |
| Thomas Jones | 10 | 23 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Brad Smith | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Keller | 2 | 1 | 24 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
7.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.6%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.44
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.05