Closing spread
ARI -7
Total
47
Model margin
+2.7est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.057EPA / play+0.052
- 37.8%Success rate45.0%
- -0.022EPA / dropback+0.144
- -0.103EPA / rush-0.140
- 7.7%Explosive rate8.6%
- -5.09CPOE+5.02
- 31.4%Third-down rate43.3%
- 54.9%Red-zone TD rate58.6%
- 1.56Points / drive2.12
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 31–17–1 since 1999
SEA have won 10 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. ARI are 21-27-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SEA–ARI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | Q1 15:00 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| ARI | Q1 14:30 | 2 | 12 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 13:47 | 12 | 69 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| ARI | Q1 7:32 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 7–0 |
| SEA | Q1 4:35 | 5 | 16 | Punt | 7–0 |
| ARI | Q1 2:18 | 5 | 18 | Punt | 7–0 |
| SEA | Q2 15:00 | 15 | 62 | Missed field goal | 7–0 |
| ARI | Q2 7:10 | 4 | 68 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| SEA | Q2 5:45 | 3 | -4 | Turnover | 7–7 |
| ARI | Q2 5:16 | 2 | 12 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| SEA | Q2 4:23 | 8 | 83 | Touchdown | 14–14 |
| ARI | Q2 1:17 | 7 | 39 | Turnover | 14–14 |
| ARI | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 14–14 |
| SEA | Q3 14:05 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 14–14 |
| ARI | Q3 12:41 | 8 | 78 | Touchdown | 14–21 |
| SEA | Q3 8:43 | 4 | 18 | Punt | 14–21 |
| ARI | Q3 6:04 | 9 | 68 | Touchdown | 14–28 |
| SEA | Q3 1:16 | 14 | 45 | Touchdown | 21–28 |
| ARI | Q4 12:04 | 7 | 72 | Field goal | 21–31 |
| SEA | Q4 8:26 | 3 | 11 | Punt | 21–31 |
| ARI | Q4 7:27 | 6 | 57 | Field goal | 21–34 |
| SEA | Q4 3:28 | 9 | 30 | Turnover | 21–34 |
| ARI | Q4 0:53 | 1 | 7 | End of half | 21–34 |
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seneca Wallace | 24/43 | 250 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Morris | 15 | 45 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Seneca Wallace | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| T.J. Duckett | 6 | 13 | 2.2 | 1 |
| Julius Jones | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Warner | 19/30 | 263 | 4 | 1 |
| Matt Leinart | 5/8 | 83 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 14 | 100 | 7.1 | 0 |
| J.J. Arrington | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Tim Hightower | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Matt Leinart | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Patrick | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
4.75%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.2%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.17
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.66