Closing spread
ARI -7
Total
47
Model margin
+2.7est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.057EPA / play+0.052
- 37.8%Success rate45.0%
- -0.022EPA / dropback+0.144
- -0.103EPA / rush-0.140
- 7.7%Explosive rate8.6%
- -5.09CPOE+5.02
- 31.4%Third-down rate43.3%
- 54.9%Red-zone TD rate58.6%
- 1.56Points / drive2.12
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 30–17–1 since 1999
SEA have won 9 straight. Meetings average 43.5 points. ARI are 21-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seneca Wallace | 24/43 | 250 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Morris | 15 | 45 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Seneca Wallace | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| T.J. Duckett | 6 | 13 | 2.2 | 1 |
| Julius Jones | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Warner | 19/30 | 263 | 4 | 1 |
| Matt Leinart | 5/8 | 83 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 14 | 100 | 7.1 | 0 |
| J.J. Arrington | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Tim Hightower | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Matt Leinart | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Patrick | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
4.75%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.2%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.17
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.66