Closing spread
STL -3
Total
40
Model margin
+5.3est.
STL perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Rams
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 10–8 since 1999
Meetings average 51.4 points. STL are 9-9 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | ATL–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 12 | 65 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| ATL | Q1 9:40 | 6 | 25 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LA | Q1 6:56 | 6 | 96 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| ATL | Q1 3:38 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–14 |
| LA | Q1 1:42 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–14 |
| ATL | Q1 0:41 | 7 | 46 | Turnover | 0–14 |
| LA | Q2 12:12 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–14 |
| ATL | Q2 10:39 | 6 | 37 | Punt | 0–14 |
| LA | Q2 7:13 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–14 |
| ATL | Q2 5:43 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–14 |
| LA | Q2 4:46 | 6 | 80 | Touchdown | 0–21 |
| ATL | Q2 1:55 | 10 | 36 | Punt | 0–21 |
| LA | Q2 0:07 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 0–21 |
| ATL | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 25 | Punt | 0–21 |
| LA | Q3 13:24 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–21 |
| ATL | Q3 11:43 | 8 | 61 | Field goal | 3–21 |
| LA | Q3 8:24 | 5 | 25 | Punt | 3–21 |
| ATL | Q3 5:45 | 3 | -8 | Punt | 3–21 |
| LA | Q3 4:59 | 5 | 25 | Turnover | 3–21 |
| ATL | Q3 2:12 | 2 | 6 | Turnover | 3–21 |
| LA | Q3 1:30 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 3–21 |
| ATL | Q4 15:00 | 6 | 85 | Touchdown | 9–21 |
| LA | Q4 11:48 | 4 | 24 | Punt | 9–21 |
| ATL | Q4 9:32 | 8 | 52 | Touchdown | 16–21 |
| LA | Q4 7:17 | 3 | 14 | Turnover | 16–21 |
| ATL | Q4 5:33 | 10 | 34 | Turnover on downs | 16–21 |
| LA | Q4 2:14 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 16–21 |
| ATL | Q4 1:45 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 16–21 |
| LA | Q4 1:31 | 2 | 50 | Touchdown | 16–28 |
| ATL | Q4 1:17 | 5 | 28 | Turnover on downs | 16–28 |
| LA | Q4 0:05 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 16–28 |
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Harrington | 17/34 | 184 | 0 | 1 |
| Chris Redman | 16/24 | 172 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerious Norwood | 8 | 94 | 11.8 | 0 |
| Warrick Dunn | 10 | 17 | 1.7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
7.44%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.0%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.94
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+5.27
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.