Closing spread
TEN -3
Total
39.5
Model margin
+1.8est.
IND perspective
Push chance
7.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Colts
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.003EPA / play+0.114
- 41.7%Success rate48.1%
- +0.037EPA / dropback+0.230
- -0.044EPA / rush-0.087
- 9.0%Explosive rate6.4%
- -2.44CPOE+4.76
- 36.7%Third-down rate50.8%
- 64.5%Red-zone TD rate68.4%
- 1.83Points / drive2.14
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 34–15 since 1999
IND have won 6 straight. Meetings average 46.3 points. IND are 29-20 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vince Young | 9/13 | 55 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Simms | 1/2 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
| Kerry Collins | 1/2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinton Ganther | 4 | 27 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Vince Young | 5 | 25 | 5.0 | 0 |
| LenDale White | 7 | 25 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Chris Henry | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jim Sorgi | 22/30 | 178 | 0 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 7/7 | 95 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lance Ball | 13 | 83 | 6.4 | 0 |
| Najeh Davenport | 8 | 26 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Jim Sorgi | 5 | 8 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Joseph Addai | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
7.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.9%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.23
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-3.16
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+1.80