2008 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Vince Young

0·23

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Jim Sorgi

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

TEN -3

Total

39.5

Model margin

+1.8est.

IND perspective

Push chance

7.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapColts
  • -0.003EPA / play+0.114
  • 41.7%Success rate48.1%
  • +0.037EPA / dropback+0.230
  • -0.044EPA / rush-0.087
  • 9.0%Explosive rate6.4%
  • -2.44CPOE+4.76
  • 36.7%Third-down rate50.8%
  • 64.5%Red-zone TD rate68.4%
  • 1.83Points / drive2.14
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 34–16 since 1999

Meetings average 46.3 points. IND are 29-21 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6TEN @ IND26–20TEN
2025 · W8TEN @ IND14–38IND
2025 · W3IND @ TEN41–20IND
2024 · W16TEN @ IND30–38IND
2024 · W6IND @ TEN20–17IND
2023 · W13IND @ TEN31–28IND
2023 · W5TEN @ IND16–23IND
2022 · W7IND @ TEN10–19TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–IND
INDQ1 15:00995Touchdown0–7
TENQ1 9:1231Punt0–7
INDQ1 7:341370Field goal0–10
TENQ1 0:1600Field goal0–10
INDQ1 0:15956Field goal0–13
TENQ2 10:14422Punt0–13
INDQ2 8:191142Field goal0–16
TENQ2 2:2637Punt0–16
INDQ2 1:44212End of half0–16
TENQ3 15:001141Missed field goal0–16
INDQ3 8:1739Punt0–16
TENQ3 5:54832Punt0–16
INDQ3 1:02520Punt0–16
TENQ4 12:4534Punt0–16
INDQ4 10:26659Touchdown0–23
TENQ4 6:38618Punt0–23
INDQ4 3:07331End of half0–23

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Vince Young9/135500
Chris Simms1/2700
Kerry Collins1/2000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Quinton Ganther4276.80
Vince Young5255.00
LenDale White7253.60
Chris Henry133.00

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jim Sorgi22/3017800
Peyton Manning7/79510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lance Ball13836.40
Najeh Davenport8263.30
Jim Sorgi581.60
Joseph Addai144.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

7.10%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.9%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.23
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.16
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+1.80