2008 · Week 17
Final
Candlestick Park · outdoors · grass · 50°F · wind 5mph
Closing spread
SF -1
Total
37
Model margin
+2.2est.
SF perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- 49ers
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.032EPA / play-0.056
- 42.3%Success rate43.6%
- +0.004EPA / dropback-0.002
- -0.080EPA / rush-0.150
- 7.5%Explosive rate8.4%
- -1.49CPOE+1.59
- 36.0%Third-down rate37.4%
- 55.0%Red-zone TD rate53.3%
- 1.37Points / drive1.64
- 1.6%Turnover rate3.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 8–5 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.2 points. SF are 7-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Campbell | 18/30 | 156 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 29 | 80 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Jason Campbell | 4 | 39 | 9.8 | 1 |
| Ladell Betts | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Hill | 21/30 | 245 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 11 | 58 | 5.3 | 0 |
| DeShaun Foster | 9 | 44 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Jason Hill | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Shaun Hill | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.9%
Expected total
42.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.32
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.17