Closing spread
ARI -2
Total
52
Model margin
+2.1est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.066EPA / play+0.052
- 43.0%Success rate45.0%
- +0.161EPA / dropback+0.144
- -0.021EPA / rush-0.140
- 10.9%Explosive rate8.6%
- +0.99CPOE+5.02
- 43.3%Third-down rate43.3%
- 55.2%Red-zone TD rate58.6%
- 2.04Points / drive2.12
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 11–5 since 1999
Meetings average 46.8 points. ARI are 7-9 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | ATL–ARI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ATL | Q1 13:56 | 3 | 4 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| ARI | Q1 12:31 | 4 | 63 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| ATL | Q1 10:28 | 6 | 11 | Punt | 0–7 |
| ARI | Q1 7:11 | 5 | 40 | Punt | 0–7 |
| ATL | Q1 4:16 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 0–7 |
| ARI | Q1 2:53 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–7 |
| ATL | Q1 2:31 | 13 | 80 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| ARI | Q2 10:00 | 3 | 72 | Touchdown | 3–14 |
| ATL | Q2 8:58 | 14 | 77 | Touchdown | 10–14 |
| ARI | Q2 2:55 | 3 | 0 | Turnover | 10–14 |
| ATL | Q2 2:03 | 6 | 18 | Touchdown | 17–14 |
| ARI | Q2 0:23 | 1 | 0 | End of half | 17–14 |
| ATL | Q3 15:00 | 2 | 3 | Punt | 17–21 |
| ATL | Q3 14:08 | 4 | -1 | Punt | 17–21 |
| ARI | Q3 12:47 | 3 | 5 | Missed field goal | 17–21 |
| ATL | Q3 11:57 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 17–21 |
| ARI | Q3 10:31 | 14 | 76 | Touchdown | 17–28 |
| ATL | Q3 2:48 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 17–28 |
| ARI | Q3 2:39 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 17–28 |
| ATL | Q3 0:57 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 17–28 |
| ARI | Q4 14:49 | 4 | 4 | Punt | 17–30 |
| ATL | Q4 12:44 | 1 | -3 | Safety | 17–30 |
| ARI | Q4 12:37 | 6 | 33 | Punt | 17–30 |
| ATL | Q4 7:51 | 9 | 53 | Touchdown | 24–30 |
| ARI | Q4 4:15 | 6 | 57 | End of half | 24–30 |
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 26/40 | 199 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Turner | 18 | 42 | 2.3 | 1 |
| Jerious Norwood | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Warner | 19/32 | 271 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 16 | 73 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Tim Hightower | 6 | 23 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Kurt Warner | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| J.J. Arrington | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
| Steve Breaston | 1 | -8 | -8.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.8%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.34
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.14