Closing spread
ARI -2
Total
52
Model margin
+2.1est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.066EPA / play+0.052
- 43.0%Success rate45.0%
- +0.161EPA / dropback+0.144
- -0.021EPA / rush-0.140
- 10.9%Explosive rate8.6%
- +0.99CPOE+5.02
- 43.3%Third-down rate43.3%
- 55.2%Red-zone TD rate58.6%
- 2.04Points / drive2.12
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 11–5 since 1999
Meetings average 46.8 points. ARI are 7-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 26/40 | 199 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Turner | 18 | 42 | 2.3 | 1 |
| Jerious Norwood | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Warner | 19/32 | 271 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 16 | 73 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Tim Hightower | 6 | 23 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Kurt Warner | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| J.J. Arrington | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
| Steve Breaston | 1 | -8 | -8.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.8%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.34
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.14