2008 · WC

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Donovan McNabb

26·14

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Tarvaris Jackson

Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

PHI -3

Total

40.5

Model margin

+2.7est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

6.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapVikings
  • +0.004EPA / play-0.039
  • 43.8%Success rate40.9%
  • +0.039EPA / dropback+0.001
  • -0.055EPA / rush-0.081
  • 8.3%Explosive rate9.0%
  • -1.08CPOE-2.18
  • 41.3%Third-down rate39.7%
  • 50.9%Red-zone TD rate53.5%
  • 1.73Points / drive1.59
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 10–4 since 1999

PHI have won 3 straight. Meetings average 47.5 points. MIN are 4-9-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W7PHI @ MIN28–22PHI
2023 · W2MIN @ PHI28–34PHI
2022 · W2MIN @ PHI7–24PHI
2019 · W6PHI @ MIN20–38MIN
2018 · W5MIN @ PHI23–21MIN
2017 · playoffsMIN @ PHI7–38PHI
2016 · W7MIN @ PHI10–21PHI
2013 · W15PHI @ MIN30–48MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–MIN
PHIQ1 15:00622Punt0–0
MINQ1 12:13619Punt0–0
PHIQ1 8:2231Field goal3–0
MINQ1 6:44936Punt3–0
PHIQ1 2:36542Field goal6–0
MINQ2 15:001067Touchdown6–7
PHIQ2 11:05859Field goal9–7
MINQ2 7:2936Opp touchdown16–7
MINQ2 6:34964Touchdown16–14
PHIQ2 1:51422Turnover16–14
MINQ2 1:1033Punt16–14
PHIQ2 0:18312End of half16–14
MINQ3 15:00824Punt16–14
PHIQ3 10:081252Punt16–14
MINQ3 3:4139Punt16–14
PHIQ3 1:312-6Turnover16–14
MINQ3 0:4435Punt16–14
PHIQ4 14:38847Punt16–14
MINQ4 9:10521Punt22–14
PHIQ4 6:53171Touchdown23–14
MINQ4 6:3730Punt23–14
PHIQ4 6:0738Punt23–14
MINQ4 3:41620Turnover23–14
PHIQ4 2:49520Field goal26–14
MINQ4 1:55727End of half26–14

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Donovan McNabb23/3430011

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brian Westbrook20381.90
Correll Buckhalter22713.50
DeSean Jackson122.00

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tarvaris Jackson15/3516401

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson20834.22
Chester Taylor12484.00
Tarvaris Jackson2178.50

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -33.9%2.6%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

6.93%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.4%

Expected total

41.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.01
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.27
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.74