Closing spread
CAR -10
Total
49.5
Model margin
+4.5est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Panthers
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.052EPA / play+0.066
- 45.0%Success rate42.5%
- +0.144EPA / dropback+0.073
- -0.140EPA / rush+0.059
- 8.6%Explosive rate11.3%
- +5.02CPOE-1.27
- 43.3%Third-down rate40.0%
- 58.6%Red-zone TD rate66.7%
- 2.12Points / drive1.98
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 14–7 since 1999
Meetings average 45.4 points. CAR are 13-8 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | ARI–CAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 50 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| ARI | Q1 11:56 | 6 | 21 | Punt | 0–7 |
| CAR | Q1 8:30 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–7 |
| ARI | Q1 6:22 | 6 | 60 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| CAR | Q1 2:43 | 1 | -7 | Turnover | 7–7 |
| ARI | Q1 2:37 | 2 | 13 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| CAR | Q1 1:47 | 5 | 18 | Turnover | 14–7 |
| ARI | Q2 14:48 | 8 | 34 | Field goal | 17–7 |
| CAR | Q2 10:16 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 17–7 |
| ARI | Q2 9:07 | 7 | 54 | Field goal | 20–7 |
| CAR | Q2 5:28 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 20–7 |
| ARI | Q2 5:11 | 3 | 44 | Touchdown | 27–7 |
| CAR | Q2 3:32 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 27–7 |
| ARI | Q2 1:52 | 7 | 37 | Missed field goal | 27–7 |
| ARI | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 12 | Punt | 27–7 |
| CAR | Q3 12:05 | 4 | 16 | Punt | 27–7 |
| ARI | Q3 10:06 | 2 | 6 | Turnover | 27–7 |
| CAR | Q3 9:12 | 2 | -1 | Turnover | 27–7 |
| ARI | Q3 7:52 | 5 | 16 | Field goal | 30–7 |
| CAR | Q3 4:40 | 5 | 25 | Turnover on downs | 30–7 |
| ARI | Q3 3:24 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 30–7 |
| CAR | Q3 1:15 | 7 | 68 | Turnover | 30–7 |
| ARI | Q4 14:04 | 5 | 13 | Punt | 30–7 |
| CAR | Q4 11:29 | 3 | 12 | Turnover | 30–7 |
| ARI | Q4 10:47 | 12 | 48 | Field goal | 33–7 |
| CAR | Q4 3:10 | 10 | 79 | Touchdown | 33–13 |
| ARI | Q4 0:50 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 33–13 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Warner | 21/32 | 220 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Hightower | 17 | 76 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Edgerrin James | 20 | 57 | 2.9 | 1 |
| J.J. Arrington | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Kurt Warner | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 17/34 | 205 | 1 | 5 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAngelo Williams | 12 | 63 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
3.21%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.1%
Expected total
46.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.54
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.48
- Expected margin+4.51