Closing spread
CAR -10
Total
49.5
Model margin
+4.5est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Panthers
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.052EPA / play+0.066
- 45.0%Success rate42.5%
- +0.144EPA / dropback+0.073
- -0.140EPA / rush+0.059
- 8.6%Explosive rate11.3%
- +5.02CPOE-1.27
- 43.3%Third-down rate40.0%
- 58.6%Red-zone TD rate66.7%
- 2.12Points / drive1.98
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 14–7 since 1999
Meetings average 45.4 points. CAR are 13-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Warner | 21/32 | 220 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Hightower | 17 | 76 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Edgerrin James | 20 | 57 | 2.9 | 1 |
| J.J. Arrington | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Kurt Warner | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 17/34 | 205 | 1 | 5 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAngelo Williams | 12 | 63 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
3.21%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.1%
Expected total
46.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.54
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.48
- Expected margin+4.51