Closing spread
TEN -3
Total
33.5
Model margin
+1.6est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Titans
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.018EPA / play-0.003
- 40.6%Success rate41.7%
- -0.007EPA / dropback+0.037
- -0.027EPA / rush-0.044
- 7.9%Explosive rate9.0%
- -0.33CPOE-2.44
- 41.3%Third-down rate36.7%
- 50.4%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
- 1.61Points / drive1.83
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 13–9 since 1999
BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 35.3 points. TEN are 9-12-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | BAL–TEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TEN | Q1 13:02 | 4 | 17 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BAL | Q1 10:32 | 4 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TEN | Q1 8:09 | 7 | 60 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| BAL | Q1 4:38 | 8 | 70 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| TEN | Q1 1:20 | 6 | 43 | Turnover on downs | 7–7 |
| BAL | Q2 13:31 | 4 | 15 | Punt | 7–7 |
| TEN | Q2 12:05 | 13 | 81 | Turnover | 7–7 |
| BAL | Q2 4:07 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 7–7 |
| TEN | Q2 2:24 | 8 | 55 | Turnover | 7–7 |
| BAL | Q2 0:25 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 7–7 |
| TEN | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 7–7 |
| BAL | Q3 14:00 | 5 | 10 | Punt | 7–7 |
| TEN | Q3 11:44 | 4 | 22 | Missed field goal | 7–7 |
| BAL | Q3 10:01 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 7–7 |
| TEN | Q3 8:16 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 7–7 |
| BAL | Q3 7:20 | 5 | 16 | Punt | 7–7 |
| TEN | Q3 4:33 | 6 | 17 | Punt | 7–7 |
| BAL | Q3 1:46 | 5 | 38 | Field goal | 10–7 |
| TEN | Q4 14:10 | 10 | 58 | Turnover | 10–7 |
| BAL | Q4 8:57 | 4 | 0 | Punt | 10–7 |
| TEN | Q4 7:23 | 5 | 32 | Field goal | 10–10 |
| BAL | Q4 4:23 | 9 | 51 | Field goal | 13–10 |
| TEN | Q4 0:53 | 4 | 5 | Turnover on downs | 13–10 |
| BAL | Q4 0:12 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 13–10 |
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 11/22 | 161 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 12 | 32 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 5 | 5 | 1.0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 26/42 | 281 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 11 | 72 | 6.5 | 1 |
| LenDale White | 15 | 45 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Kerry Collins | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Quinton Ganther | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
7.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.5%
Expected total
41.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.42
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+1.63