Closing spread
NYG -4
Total
39
Model margin
+1.0est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Giants
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.004EPA / play+0.093
- 43.8%Success rate47.3%
- +0.039EPA / dropback+0.129
- -0.055EPA / rush+0.050
- 8.3%Explosive rate10.1%
- -1.08CPOE+0.84
- 41.3%Third-down rate43.7%
- 50.9%Red-zone TD rate51.8%
- 1.73Points / drive2.09
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 38–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.1 points. NYG are 27-30-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 22/40 | 217 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Westbrook | 18 | 36 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 5 | 7 | 1.4 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 15/29 | 169 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Jacobs | 19 | 92 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Derrick Ward | 12 | 46 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
2.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.7%
Expected total
41.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.07
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+0.98