Closing spread
PIT -6.5
Total
38
Model margin
+4.9est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Steelers
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
PIT lead 9–5 since 1999
Meetings average 49.7 points. PIT are 9-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–PIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 75 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| PIT | Q1 12:59 | 7 | 34 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LAC | Q1 9:25 | 3 | 5 | Opp touchdown | 7–7 |
| LAC | Q1 7:41 | 7 | 22 | Punt | 7–7 |
| PIT | Q1 2:34 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 7–7 |
| LAC | Q1 1:15 | 5 | 21 | Punt | 7–7 |
| PIT | Q2 12:49 | 7 | 36 | Punt | 7–7 |
| LAC | Q2 7:38 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 7–7 |
| PIT | Q2 7:16 | 4 | 5 | Turnover on downs | 7–7 |
| LAC | Q2 5:05 | 6 | 20 | Field goal | 10–7 |
| PIT | Q2 1:56 | 8 | 71 | Touchdown | 10–14 |
| LAC | Q2 0:40 | 1 | 0 | End of half | 10–14 |
| PIT | Q3 15:00 | 13 | 77 | Touchdown | 10–21 |
| LAC | Q3 7:04 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 10–21 |
| PIT | Q3 6:47 | 7 | 23 | Punt | 10–21 |
| PIT | Q3 2:03 | 6 | 22 | Turnover on downs | 10–21 |
| LAC | Q4 14:56 | 4 | 1 | Punt | 10–21 |
| PIT | Q4 13:41 | 3 | 5 | Touchdown | 10–28 |
| LAC | Q4 12:52 | 10 | 69 | Touchdown | 17–28 |
| PIT | Q4 9:09 | 9 | 73 | Touchdown | 17–35 |
| LAC | Q4 4:11 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 17–35 |
| PIT | Q4 3:15 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 17–35 |
| LAC | Q4 2:43 | 4 | 84 | Touchdown | 24–35 |
| PIT | Q4 1:53 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 24–35 |
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 17/26 | 181 | 1 | 0 |
| Byron Leftwich | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Parker | 27 | 146 | 5.4 | 2 |
| Mewelde Moore | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Santonio Holmes | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Gary Russell | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 1 |
| Carey Davis | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Byron Leftwich | 4 | -2 | -0.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
4.93%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.2%
Expected total
41.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.96
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.48
- Expected margin+4.93
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.