Closing spread
PIT -6
Total
35
Model margin
+2.2est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.018EPA / play-0.031
- 40.6%Success rate42.9%
- -0.007EPA / dropback+0.022
- -0.027EPA / rush-0.103
- 7.9%Explosive rate7.8%
- -0.33CPOE+0.13
- 41.3%Third-down rate41.3%
- 50.4%Red-zone TD rate54.8%
- 1.61Points / drive1.61
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 33–26 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. PIT are 30-26-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 13/30 | 141 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 20 | 60 | 3.0 | 2 |
| Mark Clayton | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Ray Rice | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 2 | -8 | -4.0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 16/33 | 255 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Parker | 24 | 47 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Nate Washington | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
3.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.0%
Expected total
39.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.22
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.19