Closing spread
PIT -6
Total
35
Model margin
+2.2est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.018EPA / play-0.031
- 40.6%Success rate42.9%
- -0.007EPA / dropback+0.022
- -0.027EPA / rush-0.103
- 7.9%Explosive rate7.8%
- -0.33CPOE+0.13
- 41.3%Third-down rate41.3%
- 50.4%Red-zone TD rate54.8%
- 1.61Points / drive1.61
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 33–26 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. PIT are 30-26-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | BAL–PIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 55 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| BAL | Q1 11:22 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–3 |
| PIT | Q1 10:20 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 0–3 |
| BAL | Q1 8:16 | 3 | 2 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| PIT | Q1 7:30 | 6 | 11 | Field goal | 0–6 |
| BAL | Q1 6:11 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–6 |
| PIT | Q1 5:08 | 5 | 31 | Turnover | 0–6 |
| BAL | Q1 2:15 | 4 | 9 | Turnover on downs | 0–6 |
| PIT | Q1 0:35 | 3 | 66 | Touchdown | 0–13 |
| BAL | Q2 13:58 | 12 | 51 | Punt | 0–13 |
| PIT | Q2 7:06 | 6 | 23 | Punt | 0–13 |
| BAL | Q2 3:37 | 4 | 4 | Touchdown | 7–13 |
| PIT | Q2 2:40 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 7–13 |
| BAL | Q2 1:51 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 7–13 |
| PIT | Q2 1:00 | 6 | 23 | End of half | 7–13 |
| BAL | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 17 | Punt | 7–13 |
| PIT | Q3 12:10 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 7–13 |
| BAL | Q3 10:10 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 7–13 |
| PIT | Q3 9:07 | 10 | 46 | Field goal | 7–16 |
| BAL | Q3 3:38 | 4 | 12 | Punt | 7–16 |
| PIT | Q3 0:58 | 6 | 25 | Punt | 7–16 |
| BAL | Q4 12:38 | 8 | 48 | Touchdown | 14–16 |
| PIT | Q4 9:29 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 14–16 |
| BAL | Q4 6:50 | 5 | 15 | Opp touchdown | 14–23 |
| BAL | Q4 4:24 | 2 | 15 | Turnover | 14–23 |
| PIT | Q4 3:29 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 14–23 |
| BAL | Q4 1:48 | 3 | 14 | Turnover | 14–23 |
| PIT | Q4 1:11 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 14–23 |
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 13/30 | 141 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 20 | 60 | 3.0 | 2 |
| Mark Clayton | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Ray Rice | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 2 | -8 | -4.0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 16/33 | 255 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Parker | 24 | 47 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Nate Washington | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
3.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.0%
Expected total
39.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.22
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.19