Closing spread
PHI -3.5
Total
47
Model margin
-0.7est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.004EPA / play+0.052
- 43.8%Success rate45.0%
- +0.039EPA / dropback+0.144
- -0.055EPA / rush-0.140
- 8.3%Explosive rate8.6%
- -1.08CPOE+5.02
- 41.3%Third-down rate43.3%
- 50.9%Red-zone TD rate58.6%
- 1.73Points / drive2.12
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 11–8 since 1999
Meetings average 46.9 points. ARI are 11-8 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | PHI–ARI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 80 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| PHI | Q1 9:20 | 7 | 38 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| ARI | Q1 4:43 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–7 |
| PHI | Q1 3:03 | 3 | 0 | Turnover | 3–7 |
| PHI | Q1 2:04 | 8 | 46 | Missed field goal | 3–13 |
| ARI | Q2 13:30 | 1 | 62 | Touchdown | 3–14 |
| PHI | Q2 13:19 | 0 | 0 | Field goal | 3–14 |
| PHI | Q2 13:19 | 1 | 3 | Field goal | 3–14 |
| PHI | Q2 12:40 | 6 | 62 | Field goal | 6–14 |
| ARI | Q2 9:02 | 10 | 71 | Touchdown | 6–21 |
| PHI | Q2 3:06 | 5 | 21 | Punt | 6–21 |
| ARI | Q2 1:31 | 8 | 38 | Field goal | 6–24 |
| PHI | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 14 | Turnover | 6–24 |
| ARI | Q3 12:02 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 6–24 |
| PHI | Q3 10:07 | 13 | 90 | Touchdown | 13–24 |
| ARI | Q3 4:08 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 13–24 |
| PHI | Q3 3:28 | 6 | 61 | Touchdown | 19–24 |
| ARI | Q3 0:49 | 6 | 28 | Punt | 19–24 |
| PHI | Q4 13:00 | 4 | 86 | Touchdown | 25–24 |
| ARI | Q4 10:45 | 14 | 72 | Touchdown | 25–32 |
| PHI | Q4 2:53 | 8 | 33 | Turnover on downs | 25–32 |
| ARI | Q4 1:51 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 25–32 |
| PHI | Q4 0:09 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 25–32 |
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 28/47 | 375 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Westbrook | 12 | 45 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 2 | 31 | 15.5 | 0 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Warner | 21/28 | 279 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 16 | 73 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Tim Hightower | 11 | 33 | 3.0 | 0 |
| J.J. Arrington | 2 | -4 | -2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
7.42%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.1%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.30
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin-0.74