2008 · CON

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Donovan McNabb

25·32

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kurt Warner

University of Phoenix Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

PHI -3.5

Total

47

Model margin

-0.7est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapCardinals
  • +0.004EPA / play+0.052
  • 43.8%Success rate45.0%
  • +0.039EPA / dropback+0.144
  • -0.055EPA / rush-0.140
  • 8.3%Explosive rate8.6%
  • -1.08CPOE+5.02
  • 41.3%Third-down rate43.3%
  • 50.9%Red-zone TD rate58.6%
  • 1.73Points / drive2.12
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ARI lead 11–8 since 1999

Meetings average 46.9 points. ARI are 11-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W17ARI @ PHI35–31ARI
2022 · W5PHI @ ARI20–17PHI
2020 · W15PHI @ ARI26–33ARI
2017 · W5ARI @ PHI7–34PHI
2015 · W15ARI @ PHI40–17ARI
2014 · W8PHI @ ARI20–24ARI
2013 · W13ARI @ PHI21–24PHI
2012 · W3PHI @ ARI6–27ARI

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Donovan McNabb28/4737531

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brian Westbrook12453.80
Donovan McNabb23115.50
Correll Buckhalter4215.30

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kurt Warner21/2827940

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Edgerrin James16734.60
Tim Hightower11333.00
J.J. Arrington2-4-2.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.52.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

7.42%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.1%

Expected total

42.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.30
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin-0.74