Closing spread
ARI -3
Total
39.5
Model margin
+4.1est.
STL perspective
Push chance
6.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Rams
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 29–20 since 1999
RAMS have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43 points. STL are 25-23-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Anderson | 22/41 | 297 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Hightower | 13 | 54 | 4.2 | 1 |
| LaRod Stephens-Howling | 7 | 49 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Derek Anderson | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Breaston | 7 | 7 | 132 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 3 | 15 | 43 | 1 |
| Tim Hightower | 4 | 4 | 40 | 0 |
| Early Doucet | 2 | 3 | 37 | 0 |
| Max Komar | 2 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| LaRod Stephens-Howling | 3 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Stephen Spach | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jerome Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Stephen Williams | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
6.64%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.1%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.63
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.12
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.