Closing spread
ARI -3
Total
39.5
Model margin
+4.1est.
STL perspective
Push chance
6.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Cardinals
- QuestionableChris WellsRBKnee· DNP
- QuestionableJason WrightRBToe· Limited
- ProbableAndre RobertsWRShoulder· Full
- ProbableBen PatrickTEKnee· Full
- ProbableJoey PorterLBBack· Full
- ProbableLarry FitzgeraldWRKnee· Full
- ProbableMichael AdamsCBShoulder· Full
- ProbableWill DavisLBKnee· Full
Rams
- ProbableJames ButlerSKnee· Limited
Win probability
- Rams
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 29–21 since 1999
Meetings average 42.8 points. STL are 25-24-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | ARI–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 53 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 10:50 | 4 | 16 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| ARI | Q1 9:31 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 8:05 | 4 | 15 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| ARI | Q1 6:27 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 4:52 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ARI | Q1 2:55 | 10 | 51 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| LA | Q2 13:54 | 8 | 27 | Punt | 3–0 |
| ARI | Q2 10:31 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 3–0 |
| LA | Q2 10:04 | 7 | 39 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| ARI | Q2 5:28 | 5 | 76 | Touchdown | 10–3 |
| LA | Q2 2:54 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 10–3 |
| ARI | Q2 1:47 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 10–3 |
| LA | Q2 1:20 | 7 | 56 | Touchdown | 10–10 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 10–10 |
| ARI | Q3 12:57 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 10–10 |
| LA | Q3 11:54 | 7 | 19 | Field goal | 10–13 |
| ARI | Q3 8:28 | 5 | 9 | Turnover | 10–13 |
| ARI | Q3 6:16 | 7 | 25 | Punt | 10–13 |
| LA | Q3 3:41 | 5 | 10 | Punt | 10–13 |
| ARI | Q3 1:44 | 8 | 60 | Turnover | 10–13 |
| LA | Q4 14:08 | 7 | 30 | Punt | 10–13 |
| ARI | Q4 10:09 | 9 | 101 | Touchdown | 17–13 |
| LA | Q4 6:13 | 12 | 50 | Turnover | 17–13 |
| ARI | Q4 1:28 | 1 | 4 | Turnover | 17–13 |
| LA | Q4 1:21 | 11 | 40 | Turnover | 17–13 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Anderson | 22/41 | 297 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Hightower | 13 | 54 | 4.2 | 1 |
| LaRod Stephens-Howling | 7 | 49 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Derek Anderson | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Breaston | 7 | 7 | 132 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 3 | 15 | 43 | 1 |
| Tim Hightower | 4 | 4 | 40 | 0 |
| Early Doucet | 2 | 3 | 37 | 0 |
| Max Komar | 2 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| LaRod Stephens-Howling | 3 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Stephen Spach | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jerome Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Stephen Williams | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
6.64%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.1%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.63
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.12
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.