Closing spread
NYG -9
Total
43
Model margin
-5.1est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
0.8%est.
Win probability
- Giants
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.058EPA / play+0.062
- 40.6%Success rate44.1%
- -0.092EPA / dropback+0.178
- -0.022EPA / rush-0.102
- 10.9%Explosive rate10.4%
- -3.62CPOE+2.61
- 37.2%Third-down rate42.5%
- 55.1%Red-zone TD rate56.6%
- 1.39Points / drive2.02
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 7–6 since 1999
Meetings average 46.4 points. NYG are 8-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Moore | 15/20 | 171 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Stewart | 28 | 206 | 7.4 | 1 |
| Matt Moore | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Mike Goodson | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Smith | 5 | 6 | 60 | 1 |
| Muhsin Muhammad | 3 | 4 | 56 | 1 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Mike Goodson | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Kenny Moore | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Jeff King | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Dante Rosario | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 29/43 | 296 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 11 | 53 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 6 | 1 | 0.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Manningham | 6 | 8 | 87 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 7 | 9 | 70 | 1 |
| Kevin Boss | 5 | 8 | 49 | 0 |
| Hakeem Nicks | 6 | 8 | 44 | 0 |
| Domenik Hixon | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Derek Hagan | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
0.82%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
35.7%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.82
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-4.66
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-5.07