2009 · Week 16

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Matt Moore

41·9

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

Giants Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 50°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

NYG -9

Total

43

Model margin

-5.1est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

0.8%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapGiants
  • -0.058EPA / play+0.062
  • 40.6%Success rate44.1%
  • -0.092EPA / dropback+0.178
  • -0.022EPA / rush-0.102
  • 10.9%Explosive rate10.4%
  • -3.62CPOE+2.61
  • 37.2%Third-down rate42.5%
  • 55.1%Red-zone TD rate56.6%
  • 1.39Points / drive2.02
  • 2.8%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CAR lead 7–6 since 1999

Meetings average 46.4 points. NYG are 8-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W10NYG @ CAR17–20CAR
2022 · W2CAR @ NYG16–19NYG
2021 · W7CAR @ NYG3–25NYG
2018 · W5NYG @ CAR31–33CAR
2015 · W15CAR @ NYG38–35CAR
2013 · W3NYG @ CAR0–38CAR
2012 · W3NYG @ CAR36–7NYG
2010 · W1CAR @ NYG18–31NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–NYG
NYGQ1 15:001473Turnover0–0
CARQ1 7:381556Field goal3–0
NYGQ1 0:4645Punt3–0
CARQ2 13:41754Touchdown10–0
NYGQ2 10:373-3Punt10–0
CARQ2 9:27751Touchdown17–0
NYGQ2 5:4021Turnover17–0
CARQ2 4:50629Touchdown24–0
NYGQ2 2:2131Punt24–0
CARQ2 1:17618Punt24–0
NYGQ2 0:38545Turnover24–0
CARQ3 15:00471Touchdown31–0
NYGQ3 13:001151Field goal31–3
CARQ3 7:441063Field goal34–3
NYGQ3 0:43963Touchdown34–9
CARQ4 11:59464Touchdown41–9
NYGQ4 9:411374Turnover on downs41–9
CARQ4 5:14713Punt41–9
NYGQ4 3:0137Turnover41–9
CARQ4 1:5300End of half41–9

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Moore15/2017130

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Stewart282067.41
Matt Moore420.50
Mike Goodson520.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Steve Smith56601
Muhsin Muhammad34561
Jonathan Stewart22160
Mike Goodson11130
Kenny Moore23120
Jeff King1121
Dante Rosario0100

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning29/4329612

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ahmad Bradshaw11534.80
Eli Manning263.00
Brandon Jacobs610.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mario Manningham68870
Steve Smith79701
Kevin Boss58490
Hakeem Nicks68440
Domenik Hixon23220
Derek Hagan11210
Ahmad Bradshaw2430

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +93.2%7.5%6.4%3.5%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

0.82%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

35.7%

Expected total

45.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.82
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-4.66
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin-5.07