2010 · Week 1 · Division

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Tony Romo

7·13

Commanders

Washington

QB Donovan McNabb

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 66°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

DAL -3.5

Total

39.5

Model margin

+0.8est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapCommanders
  • -0.002EPA / play-0.079
  • 43.2%Success rate40.8%
  • +0.048EPA / dropback-0.045
  • -0.085EPA / rush-0.148
  • 9.1%Explosive rate9.3%
  • +2.25CPOE-4.10
  • 40.4%Third-down rate29.2%
  • 65.7%Red-zone TD rate58.6%
  • 1.67Points / drive1.31
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 39–16 since 1999

DAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.6 points. WAS are 23-32 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2WAS @ DAL20–37DAL
2025 · W17DAL @ WAS30–23DAL
2025 · W7WAS @ DAL22–44DAL
2024 · W18WAS @ DAL23–19WAS
2024 · W12DAL @ WAS34–26DAL
2023 · W18DAL @ WAS38–10DAL
2023 · W12WAS @ DAL10–45DAL
2022 · W18DAL @ WAS6–26WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–WAS
DALQ1 15:00737Punt0–0
WASQ1 10:511154Field goal0–3
DALQ1 4:251054Missed field goal0–3
WASQ2 14:2133Punt0–3
DALQ2 13:2067Punt0–3
WASQ2 10:31536Punt0–3
DALQ2 8:221267Punt0–3
WASQ2 1:42724Punt0–3
DALQ2 0:27512Opp touchdown0–10
WASQ3 15:001362Turnover on downs0–10
DALQ3 9:15541Punt0–10
WASQ3 6:0330Punt0–10
DALQ3 5:07634Touchdown7–10
WASQ3 1:4154Punt7–10
DALQ4 14:21950Punt7–10
WASQ4 9:28411Punt7–10
DALQ4 7:4735Punt7–10
WASQ4 6:141056Field goal7–13
DALQ4 1:501273End of half7–13

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Romo31/4728210
Marion Barber0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marion Barber8394.90
Felix Jones8384.80
Tashard Choice5183.60
Chris Gronkowski188.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Miles Austin10111461
Dez Bryant812560
Jason Witten38270
Felix Jones22260
Roy Williams37210
Martellus Bennett1270
Marion Barber2310
Kevin Ogletree0100
Tashard Choice22-20

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Donovan McNabb15/3217100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Clinton Portis18633.50
Donovan McNabb11717.00
Larry Johnson393.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Cooley69800
Santana Moss69770
Anthony Armstrong15110
Mike Sellers1320
Clinton Portis1310
Joey Galloway0100
Roydell Williams0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.52.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

7.26%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.1%

Expected total

45.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.56
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.17
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.75