2010 · Week 1 · Division
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 66°F · wind 2mph
Closing spread
DAL -3.5
Total
39.5
Model margin
+0.8est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Commanders
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.002EPA / play-0.079
- 43.2%Success rate40.8%
- +0.048EPA / dropback-0.045
- -0.085EPA / rush-0.148
- 9.1%Explosive rate9.3%
- +2.25CPOE-4.10
- 40.4%Third-down rate29.2%
- 65.7%Red-zone TD rate58.6%
- 1.67Points / drive1.31
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 38–16 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. WAS are 23-31 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 31/47 | 282 | 1 | 0 |
| Marion Barber | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marion Barber | 8 | 39 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Felix Jones | 8 | 38 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Tashard Choice | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Chris Gronkowski | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Austin | 10 | 11 | 146 | 1 |
| Dez Bryant | 8 | 12 | 56 | 0 |
| Jason Witten | 3 | 8 | 27 | 0 |
| Felix Jones | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Roy Williams | 3 | 7 | 21 | 0 |
| Martellus Bennett | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Marion Barber | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Kevin Ogletree | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tashard Choice | 2 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 15/32 | 171 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 18 | 63 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 0 |
| Larry Johnson | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Cooley | 6 | 9 | 80 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 6 | 9 | 77 | 0 |
| Anthony Armstrong | 1 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| Mike Sellers | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Clinton Portis | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Joey Galloway | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Roydell Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
7.26%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.1%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.56
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-0.17
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.75