Closing spread
CHI -6.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+3.7est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bears
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.043EPA / play-0.097
- 40.5%Success rate39.0%
- +0.013EPA / dropback-0.053
- -0.145EPA / rush-0.166
- 7.9%Explosive rate8.3%
- -3.37CPOE+0.87
- 40.4%Third-down rate33.1%
- 72.0%Red-zone TD rate47.3%
- 1.59Points / drive1.43
- 2.2%Turnover rate3.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 28–26 since 1999
DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. CHI are 24-27-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Hill | 9/19 | 88 | 0 | 1 |
| Matthew Stafford | 11/15 | 83 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahvid Best | 14 | 20 | 1.4 | 2 |
| Maurice Morris | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
| Shaun Hill | 3 | -4 | -1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Johnson | 4 | 10 | 45 | 0 |
| Tony Scheffler | 6 | 7 | 43 | 0 |
| Bryant Johnson | 1 | 1 | 24 | 0 |
| Nate Burleson | 1 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Maurice Morris | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Jahvid Best | 5 | 6 | 16 | 0 |
| Brandon Pettigrew | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 23/35 | 372 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 17 | 50 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 9 | 29 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 7 | 7 | 151 | 2 |
| Devin Aromashodu | 5 | 10 | 71 | 0 |
| Johnny Knox | 3 | 7 | 52 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 3 | 4 | 44 | 0 |
| Greg Olsen | 4 | 6 | 37 | 0 |
| Devin Hester | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
4.85%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.8%
Expected total
42.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.45
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+0.72
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.66