2010 · Week 1 · Division

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

14·19

Bears

Chicago

QB Jay Cutler

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 75°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

CHI -6.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

+3.7est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapBears
  • -0.043EPA / play-0.097
  • 40.5%Success rate39.0%
  • +0.013EPA / dropback-0.053
  • -0.145EPA / rush-0.166
  • 7.9%Explosive rate8.3%
  • -3.37CPOE+0.87
  • 40.4%Third-down rate33.1%
  • 72.0%Red-zone TD rate47.3%
  • 1.59Points / drive1.43
  • 2.2%Turnover rate3.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 28–26 since 1999

DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. CHI are 24-27-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18DET @ CHI19–16DET
2025 · W2CHI @ DET21–52DET
2024 · W16DET @ CHI34–17DET
2024 · W13CHI @ DET20–23DET
2023 · W14DET @ CHI13–28CHI
2023 · W11CHI @ DET26–31DET
2022 · W17CHI @ DET10–41DET
2022 · W10DET @ CHI31–30DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–CHI
CHIQ1 15:001064Field goal0–3
DETQ1 9:0336Punt0–3
CHIQ1 7:3550Turnover0–3
DETQ1 5:33727Touchdown7–3
CHIQ1 2:15862Turnover7–3
DETQ2 13:4030Punt7–3
CHIQ2 11:3336Punt7–3
DETQ2 9:5537Punt7–3
CHIQ2 8:17549Turnover7–3
DETQ2 6:031060Touchdown14–3
CHIQ2 1:30289Touchdown14–10
DETQ2 1:033-4Turnover14–10
CHIQ2 0:20324Field goal14–13
DETQ3 15:0031Punt14–13
CHIQ3 13:57521Punt14–13
DETQ3 11:143-8Punt14–13
CHIQ3 9:10724Punt14–13
DETQ3 5:5439Punt14–13
CHIQ3 4:11412Turnover14–13
DETQ3 1:54411Turnover14–13
CHIQ3 0:16944Punt14–13
DETQ4 10:451-8Turnover14–13
CHIQ4 10:3740Turnover on downs14–13
DETQ4 8:5839Punt14–13
DETQ4 6:3100Punt14–13
CHIQ4 6:2033Punt14–13
DETQ4 4:1830Punt14–13
CHIQ4 3:21866Touchdown14–19
DETQ4 1:32758Turnover on downs14–19
CHIQ4 0:1200End of half14–19

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Shaun Hill9/198801
Matthew Stafford11/158300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jahvid Best14201.42
Maurice Morris2-3-1.50
Shaun Hill3-4-1.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Calvin Johnson410450
Tony Scheffler67430
Bryant Johnson11240
Nate Burleson14190
Maurice Morris22180
Jahvid Best56160
Brandon Pettigrew1260

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler23/3537221

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Forte17502.90
Chester Taylor9293.20
Jay Cutler5224.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Matt Forte771512
Devin Aromashodu510710
Johnny Knox37520
Chester Taylor34440
Greg Olsen46370
Devin Hester11170

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.53.8%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

4.85%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.8%

Expected total

42.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.45
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.72
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.66