2010 · Week 1

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

27·20

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Kevin Kolb

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 69°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

GB -3

Total

47.5

Model margin

-2.9est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Eagles

Nothing filed.

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapEagles
  • +0.076EPA / play+0.078
  • 45.9%Success rate44.2%
  • +0.186EPA / dropback+0.104
  • -0.117EPA / rush+0.029
  • 8.2%Explosive rate11.1%
  • +5.31CPOE+4.09
  • 41.3%Third-down rate39.7%
  • 58.4%Red-zone TD rate62.2%
  • 1.91Points / drive1.97
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 11–7 since 1999

PHI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 42.9 points. PHI are 11-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W10PHI @ GB10–7PHI
2024 · playoffsGB @ PHI10–22PHI
2024 · W1GB @ PHI29–34PHI
2022 · W12GB @ PHI33–40PHI
2020 · W13PHI @ GB16–30GB
2019 · W4PHI @ GB34–27PHI
2016 · W12GB @ PHI27–13GB
2014 · W11PHI @ GB20–53GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–PHI
GBQ1 15:0030Punt0–0
PHIQ1 14:364-3Punt0–0
GBQ1 12:49814Turnover0–0
PHIQ1 8:23836Field goal0–3
GBQ1 4:231033Field goal3–3
PHIQ2 13:5262Punt3–3
GBQ2 10:4737Punt3–3
PHIQ2 8:4547Punt3–3
GBQ2 7:211286Touchdown10–3
PHIQ2 1:4837Punt10–3
GBQ2 0:41534Field goal13–3
PHIQ3 15:00339Turnover13–3
GBQ3 13:291062Touchdown20–3
PHIQ3 8:361175Touchdown20–10
GBQ3 4:24451Touchdown27–10
PHIQ3 1:5635Punt27–10
GBQ3 0:2635Punt27–10
PHIQ4 14:021074Touchdown27–17
GBQ4 10:233-3Turnover27–17
PHIQ4 9:14845Field goal27–20
GBQ4 5:43513Punt27–20
PHIQ4 4:13634Turnover on downs27–20
GBQ4 1:5400End of half27–20

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers19/3118822

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brandon Jackson18633.50
Ryan Grant8455.60
Aaron Rodgers591.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Greg Jennings510821
Jermichael Finley46470
Donald Driver57301
Brandon Jackson22120
James Jones23100
Jordy Nelson1270

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike Vick16/2417510
Kevin Kolb5/102400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mike Vick111039.40
LeSean McCoy7355.01
Jeremy Maclin11111.00
Kevin Kolb111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
LeSean McCoy55470
Jason Avant47410
Jeremy Maclin45381
Brent Celek24320
DeSean Jackson411300
Eldra Buckley11100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.7%3.1%4.8%3.1%7.5%6.9%3.9%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

41.4%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.92
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.45
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.88