Closing spread
GB -3
Total
47.5
Model margin
-2.9est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Eagles
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.076EPA / play+0.078
- 45.9%Success rate44.2%
- +0.186EPA / dropback+0.104
- -0.117EPA / rush+0.029
- 8.2%Explosive rate11.1%
- +5.31CPOE+4.09
- 41.3%Third-down rate39.7%
- 58.4%Red-zone TD rate62.2%
- 1.91Points / drive1.97
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 11–7 since 1999
PHI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 42.9 points. PHI are 11-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 19/31 | 188 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Jackson | 18 | 63 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Ryan Grant | 8 | 45 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 5 | 9 | 1.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Jennings | 5 | 10 | 82 | 1 |
| Jermichael Finley | 4 | 6 | 47 | 0 |
| Donald Driver | 5 | 7 | 30 | 1 |
| Brandon Jackson | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| James Jones | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Jordy Nelson | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 16/24 | 175 | 1 | 0 |
| Kevin Kolb | 5/10 | 24 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 11 | 103 | 9.4 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 7 | 35 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Kevin Kolb | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 5 | 5 | 47 | 0 |
| Jason Avant | 4 | 7 | 41 | 0 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 4 | 5 | 38 | 1 |
| Brent Celek | 2 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 4 | 11 | 30 | 0 |
| Eldra Buckley | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
41.4%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.92
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-3.45
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.88