2010 · Week 1 · Division

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Peyton Manning

24·34

Texans

Houston

QB Matt Schaub

Reliant Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

IND -1

Total

47.5

Model margin

+1.6est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapTexans
  • +0.095EPA / play+0.107
  • 47.2%Success rate47.5%
  • +0.182EPA / dropback+0.151
  • -0.067EPA / rush+0.039
  • 6.7%Explosive rate10.7%
  • +3.98CPOE+0.65
  • 44.8%Third-down rate41.2%
  • 71.1%Red-zone TD rate67.4%
  • 2.12Points / drive2.09
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 34–15–1 since 1999

Meetings average 45.6 points. HOU are 19-28-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3HOU @ IND17–19IND
2025 · W18IND @ HOU30–38HOU
2025 · W13HOU @ IND20–16HOU
2024 · W8IND @ HOU20–23HOU
2024 · W1HOU @ IND29–27HOU
2023 · W18HOU @ IND23–19HOU
2023 · W2IND @ HOU31–20IND
2022 · W18HOU @ IND32–31HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–HOU
INDQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
HOUQ1 13:12824Field goal0–3
INDQ1 9:32730Punt0–3
HOUQ1 6:0240Field goal0–6
INDQ1 4:43825Punt0–6
HOUQ1 1:45780Touchdown0–13
INDQ2 13:01631Punt0–13
HOUQ2 9:50317Turnover0–13
INDQ2 8:12740Touchdown7–13
HOUQ2 5:193-4Punt7–13
INDQ2 3:501058Field goal10–13
HOUQ2 0:1500End of half10–13
HOUQ3 15:001566Touchdown10–20
INDQ3 7:031146Punt10–20
HOUQ3 2:21843Punt10–20
INDQ4 12:38672Turnover10–20
HOUQ4 10:38491Touchdown10–27
INDQ4 8:411275Touchdown17–27
HOUQ4 4:52741Touchdown17–34
INDQ4 1:56277Touchdown24–34
HOUQ4 1:1500End of half24–34

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning40/5743330

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joseph Addai10444.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Austin Collie10111311
Reggie Wayne710991
Dallas Clark1113801
Pierre Garcon411750
Joseph Addai66290
Anthony Gonzalez13120
Donald Brown1370

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Schaub9/1710711

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Arian Foster332317.03
Steve Slaton6294.80
Matt Schaub3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Andre Johnson35330
Kevin Walter22291
Jacoby Jones26290
Owen Daniels1290
Arian Foster1170

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -14.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

2.12%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.4%

Expected total

48.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.87
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.62