Closing spread
IND -1
Total
47.5
Model margin
+1.6est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Texans
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.095EPA / play+0.107
- 47.2%Success rate47.5%
- +0.182EPA / dropback+0.151
- -0.067EPA / rush+0.039
- 6.7%Explosive rate10.7%
- +3.98CPOE+0.65
- 44.8%Third-down rate41.2%
- 71.1%Red-zone TD rate67.4%
- 2.12Points / drive2.09
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 33–15–1 since 1999
HOU have won 5 straight. Meetings average 45.8 points. HOU are 19-27-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 40/57 | 433 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Addai | 10 | 44 | 4.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Collie | 10 | 11 | 131 | 1 |
| Reggie Wayne | 7 | 10 | 99 | 1 |
| Dallas Clark | 11 | 13 | 80 | 1 |
| Pierre Garcon | 4 | 11 | 75 | 0 |
| Joseph Addai | 6 | 6 | 29 | 0 |
| Anthony Gonzalez | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Donald Brown | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 9/17 | 107 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arian Foster | 33 | 231 | 7.0 | 3 |
| Steve Slaton | 6 | 29 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Matt Schaub | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Johnson | 3 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Kevin Walter | 2 | 2 | 29 | 1 |
| Jacoby Jones | 2 | 6 | 29 | 0 |
| Owen Daniels | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Arian Foster | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.4%
Expected total
48.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.87
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.62