Closing spread
NO -4.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
+3.9est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.112EPA / play+0.039
- 42.3%Success rate46.2%
- -0.105EPA / dropback+0.121
- -0.121EPA / rush-0.117
- 9.3%Explosive rate8.0%
- -2.30CPOE+5.83
- 34.1%Third-down rate48.8%
- 48.7%Red-zone TD rate58.2%
- 1.25Points / drive1.88
- 3.5%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 10–7 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 52.1 points. NO are 8-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 15/27 | 171 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 19 | 87 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Albert Young | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
| Percy Harvin | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Visanthe Shiancoe | 4 | 7 | 76 | 1 |
| Greg Camarillo | 1 | 2 | 29 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 3 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Greg Lewis | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Percy Harvin | 1 | 5 | 12 | 0 |
| Albert Young | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Jeff Dugan | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Jimmy Kleinsasser | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Bernard Berrian | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 27/36 | 237 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Thomas | 19 | 71 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Reggie Bush | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 4 | -6 | -1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marques Colston | 5 | 6 | 62 | 0 |
| Devery Henderson | 2 | 4 | 38 | 1 |
| Reggie Bush | 5 | 6 | 33 | 0 |
| Robert Meachem | 3 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Jeremy Shockey | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Lance Moore | 3 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 3 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| David Thomas | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.5%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.41
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.90