2010 · Week 1

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Brett Favre

9·14

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

Louisiana Superdome · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

NO -4.5

Total

48.5

Model margin

+3.9est.

NO perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapSaints
  • -0.112EPA / play+0.039
  • 42.3%Success rate46.2%
  • -0.105EPA / dropback+0.121
  • -0.121EPA / rush-0.117
  • 9.3%Explosive rate8.0%
  • -2.30CPOE+5.83
  • 34.1%Third-down rate48.8%
  • 48.7%Red-zone TD rate58.2%
  • 1.25Points / drive1.88
  • 3.5%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 11–7 since 1999

MIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 51.2 points. NO are 8-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5MIN @ NO23–13MIN
2023 · W10NO @ MIN19–27MIN
2022 · W4MIN @ NO28–25MIN
2020 · W16MIN @ NO33–52NO
2019 · playoffsMIN @ NO26–20MIN
2018 · W8NO @ MIN30–20NO
2017 · playoffsNO @ MIN24–29MIN
2017 · W1NO @ MIN19–29MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–NO
NOQ1 15:00577Touchdown0–7
MINQ1 12:5637Punt0–7
NOQ1 10:5330Punt0–7
MINQ1 9:16838Punt0–7
NOQ1 5:27961Punt0–7
MINQ2 14:531666Field goal3–7
NOQ2 5:2846Punt3–7
MINQ2 3:49313Turnover3–7
NOQ2 2:2731Missed field goal3–7
MINQ2 1:19564Touchdown9–7
NOQ2 0:3424End of half9–7
MINQ3 15:00420Punt9–7
NOQ3 12:561169Touchdown9–14
MINQ3 6:1331Punt9–14
NOQ3 5:0234Punt9–14
MINQ3 2:563-3Punt9–14
NOQ3 1:3231Punt9–14
MINQ3 0:1933Punt9–14
NOQ4 14:43946Missed field goal9–14
MINQ4 9:10744Punt9–14
NOQ4 5:32842End of half9–14

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brett Favre15/2717111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson19874.60
Albert Young320.70
Percy Harvin122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Visanthe Shiancoe47761
Greg Camarillo12290
Adrian Peterson33140
Greg Lewis12120
Percy Harvin15120
Albert Young22110
Jeff Dugan1180
Jimmy Kleinsasser1260
Bernard Berrian1330

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees27/3623710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Pierre Thomas19713.71
Reggie Bush2147.00
Drew Brees4-6-1.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marques Colston56620
Devery Henderson24381
Reggie Bush56330
Robert Meachem34330
Jeremy Shockey33230
Lance Moore34230
Pierre Thomas33150
David Thomas2430

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.53.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

1.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.5%

Expected total

43.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.41
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.90