Closing spread
TEN -7
Total
39.5
Model margin
+2.3est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
4.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Titans
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 8–8 since 1999
Meetings average 46.7 points. TEN are 7-9 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–TEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEN | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 14:07 | 8 | 40 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| TEN | Q1 10:33 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 3–0 |
| LV | Q1 8:24 | 4 | 11 | Punt | 3–0 |
| TEN | Q1 6:23 | 10 | 44 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| LV | Q1 1:13 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 3–3 |
| TEN | Q1 0:46 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 3–3 |
| LV | Q2 13:56 | 13 | 55 | Field goal | 6–3 |
| TEN | Q2 5:18 | 5 | 5 | Punt | 6–3 |
| LV | Q2 2:21 | 7 | 45 | Field goal | 9–3 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 30 | Punt | 9–3 |
| TEN | Q3 10:27 | 7 | 46 | Punt | 9–3 |
| LV | Q3 7:10 | 4 | 4 | Punt | 9–3 |
| TEN | Q3 4:15 | 4 | 69 | Touchdown | 9–10 |
| LV | Q3 2:24 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 9–10 |
| TEN | Q3 0:20 | 6 | 15 | Punt | 9–10 |
| LV | Q4 13:04 | 4 | -5 | Turnover | 9–10 |
| TEN | Q4 12:21 | 3 | 4 | Field goal | 9–13 |
| LV | Q4 11:22 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 9–13 |
| TEN | Q4 9:54 | 6 | 12 | Punt | 9–13 |
| LV | Q4 5:31 | 6 | 21 | Turnover | 9–13 |
| TEN | Q4 2:33 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 9–13 |
| LV | Q4 2:12 | 6 | 28 | Turnover on downs | 9–13 |
| TEN | Q4 1:17 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 9–13 |
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vince Young | 6/14 | 42 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LenDale White | 25 | 133 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Chris Henry | 4 | 48 | 12.0 | 1 |
| Vince Young | 7 | 11 | 1.6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
4.72%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.4%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.22
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.34
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.