Closing spread
SD -4
Total
45.5
Model margin
+3.7est.
KC perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Chargers
- DoubtfulShawne MerrimanLBAchilles· DNP
- ProbableBilly VolekQBKnee· Full
Chiefs
- OutCameron SheffieldLBNeck· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- DoubtfulDexter McClusterWRIllness· Limited
- QuestionableRyan O'CallaghanTGroin· Limited
- QuestionableTamba HaliLBFoot· Limited
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 32–23 since 1999
Meetings average 44.6 points. KC are 27-27-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–KC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 14:01 | 9 | 44 | Punt | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 8:22 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 6:37 | 9 | 60 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| KC | Q1 1:52 | 3 | 69 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| LAC | Q1 0:37 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 7–7 |
| KC | Q2 13:21 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 7–7 |
| LAC | Q2 11:20 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 7–7 |
| KC | Q2 8:59 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 7–7 |
| LAC | Q2 7:32 | 1 | 15 | Turnover | 7–7 |
| KC | Q2 7:21 | 3 | 12 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| LAC | Q2 5:55 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 7–14 |
| KC | Q2 4:33 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 7–14 |
| LAC | Q2 3:28 | 3 | 6 | Opp touchdown | 7–21 |
| LAC | Q2 1:43 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 7–21 |
| KC | Q2 1:15 | 7 | 40 | Turnover on downs | 7–21 |
| LAC | Q2 0:02 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 7–21 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 23 | Punt | 7–21 |
| KC | Q3 12:38 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 7–21 |
| LAC | Q3 11:09 | 5 | 24 | Punt | 7–21 |
| KC | Q3 8:49 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 7–21 |
| LAC | Q3 5:14 | 5 | 91 | Touchdown | 14–21 |
| KC | Q3 2:23 | 9 | 39 | Punt | 14–21 |
| LAC | Q4 13:50 | 11 | 63 | Turnover on downs | 14–21 |
| KC | Q4 7:03 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 14–21 |
| LAC | Q4 4:52 | 10 | 61 | Turnover on downs | 14–21 |
| KC | Q4 0:33 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 14–21 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 10/22 | 68 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Charles | 11 | 92 | 8.4 | 1 |
| Thomas Jones | 11 | 39 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Matt Cassel | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Moeaki | 3 | 4 | 21 | 1 |
| Chris Chambers | 1 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Dwayne Bowe | 1 | 5 | 13 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 2 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.0%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.24
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.73
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.