Closing spread
SD -4
Total
45.5
Model margin
+3.7est.
KC perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 31–23 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.9 points. KC are 26-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 10/22 | 68 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Charles | 11 | 92 | 8.4 | 1 |
| Thomas Jones | 11 | 39 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Matt Cassel | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Moeaki | 3 | 4 | 21 | 1 |
| Chris Chambers | 1 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Dwayne Bowe | 1 | 5 | 13 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 2 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.0%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.24
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.73
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.