Closing spread
SF -3
Total
37
Model margin
-0.9est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Seahawks
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.055EPA / play-0.117
- 38.8%Success rate38.3%
- -0.024EPA / dropback-0.072
- -0.102EPA / rush-0.194
- 8.8%Explosive rate7.9%
- -4.51CPOE-1.80
- 33.2%Third-down rate37.0%
- 55.8%Red-zone TD rate48.0%
- 1.30Points / drive1.36
- 2.2%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 31–20 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.2 points. SEA are 29-21-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 26/45 | 225 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 17 | 38 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vernon Davis | 8 | 12 | 73 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 6 | 7 | 45 | 0 |
| Josh Morgan | 3 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 3 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 1 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Michael Crabtree | 2 | 8 | 12 | 0 |
| Dominique Zeigler | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Nate Byham | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 18/23 | 170 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Forsett | 7 | 43 | 6.1 | 0 |
| Julius Jones | 8 | 18 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 6 | 12 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Williams | 4 | 6 | 64 | 0 |
| John Carlson | 3 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 3 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Deon Butler | 1 | 1 | 13 | 1 |
| Deion Branch | 3 | 3 | 11 | 1 |
| Cameron Morrah | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Ben Obomanu | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
7.44%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.6%
Expected total
42.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.41
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.93