2010 · Week 1 · Division

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Alex Smith

6·31

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Matt Hasselbeck

Qwest Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 64°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

SF -3

Total

37

Model margin

-0.9est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapSeahawks
  • -0.055EPA / play-0.117
  • 38.8%Success rate38.3%
  • -0.024EPA / dropback-0.072
  • -0.102EPA / rush-0.194
  • 8.8%Explosive rate7.9%
  • -4.51CPOE-1.80
  • 33.2%Third-down rate37.0%
  • 55.8%Red-zone TD rate48.0%
  • 1.30Points / drive1.36
  • 2.2%Turnover rate3.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 31–21 since 1999

Meetings average 42.6 points. SEA are 29-22-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5SF @ SEA32–29SF
2025 · playoffsSF @ SEA6–41SEA
2025 · W18SEA @ SF13–3SEA
2025 · W1SF @ SEA17–13SF
2024 · W11SEA @ SF20–17SEA
2024 · W6SF @ SEA36–24SF
2023 · W14SEA @ SF16–28SF
2023 · W12SF @ SEA31–13SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–SEA
SEAQ1 15:0010Turnover0–0
SFQ1 14:51719Field goal3–0
SEAQ1 10:1639Punt3–0
SFQ1 8:111589Turnover on downs3–0
SEAQ2 13:3632Punt3–0
SFQ2 12:11831Field goal6–0
SEAQ2 6:23859Touchdown6–7
SFQ2 2:26415Turnover6–13
SEAQ2 1:33113Touchdown6–14
SFQ2 1:2734Punt6–14
SEAQ2 0:151-1End of half6–14
SFQ3 15:0032Opp touchdown6–21
SFQ3 13:5930Punt6–21
SEAQ3 13:26955Touchdown6–28
SFQ3 10:30531Punt6–28
SEAQ3 8:2632Punt6–28
SFQ3 7:0237Punt6–28
SEAQ3 5:20931Punt6–28
SFQ4 14:11637Punt6–28
SEAQ4 11:5835Punt6–28
SFQ4 9:4132Punt6–28
SEAQ4 8:561067Field goal6–31
SFQ4 2:24726End of half6–31

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith26/4522502

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore17382.20
Delanie Walker11010.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Vernon Davis812730
Frank Gore67450
Josh Morgan35320
Delanie Walker34270
Ted Ginn12190
Michael Crabtree28120
Dominique Zeigler12100
Nate Byham1150

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Hasselbeck18/2317021

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Justin Forsett7436.10
Julius Jones8182.30
Leon Washington6122.00
Matt Hasselbeck242.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Williams46640
John Carlson35360
Justin Forsett33170
Deon Butler11131
Deion Branch33111
Cameron Morrah12110
Ben Obomanu1160

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.2%2.8%4.3%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

7.44%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.6%

Expected total

42.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.41
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.93