2010 · Week 2 · Division

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

10·15

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Carson Palmer

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 78°F · wind 1mph

Closing spread

BAL -2.5

Total

39.5

Model margin

+0.3est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapBengals
  • +0.028EPA / play-0.042
  • 41.8%Success rate44.3%
  • +0.133EPA / dropback+0.055
  • -0.102EPA / rush-0.191
  • 7.3%Explosive rate7.6%
  • +2.93CPOE+0.88
  • 38.4%Third-down rate39.8%
  • 57.9%Red-zone TD rate55.0%
  • 1.78Points / drive1.45
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 30–26 since 1999

Meetings average 43.1 points. CIN are 29-25-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7CIN @ BAL35–13CIN
2025 · W15BAL @ CIN24–0BAL
2025 · W13CIN @ BAL32–14CIN
2024 · W10CIN @ BAL34–35BAL
2024 · W5BAL @ CIN41–38BAL
2023 · W11CIN @ BAL20–34BAL
2023 · W2BAL @ CIN27–24BAL
2022 · playoffsBAL @ CIN17–24CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–CIN
CINQ1 15:00313Punt0–0
BALQ1 13:49831Punt0–0
CINQ1 10:13520Punt0–0
BALQ1 7:1132Punt0–0
CINQ1 6:061259Field goal0–3
BALQ2 14:5236Turnover0–3
CINQ2 13:21638Field goal0–6
BALQ2 9:46521Punt0–6
CINQ2 7:0733Punt0–6
BALQ2 5:27612Punt0–6
CINQ2 3:2732Punt0–6
BALQ2 1:4356Punt0–6
CINQ2 0:5038Punt0–6
BALQ2 0:1100End of half0–6
BALQ3 15:00780Touchdown7–6
CINQ3 11:46416Punt7–6
BALQ3 9:25417Turnover7–6
CINQ3 7:4831Punt7–6
BALQ3 6:4531Punt7–6
CINQ3 5:231230Field goal7–9
BALQ3 0:14629Punt7–9
CINQ4 12:30443Punt7–9
BALQ4 9:35752Field goal10–9
CINQ4 5:4646Field goal10–12
BALQ4 4:3420Turnover10–12
CINQ4 4:1934Field goal10–15
BALQ4 2:4863Turnover10–15
CINQ4 2:00212End of half10–15

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco17/3915414

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ray Rice16875.40
Willis McGahee3103.30
Joe Flacco393.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Todd Heap46350
Anquan Boldin58350
Derrick Mason16311
Ray Rice46300
Ed Dickson12170
Dennis Pitta1310
T.J. Houshmandzadeh0600
Willis McGahee0100

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Palmer16/3516700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cedric Benson23783.40
Bernard Scott5173.40
Carson Palmer3-1-0.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terrell Owens311570
Chad Johnson49440
Jordan Shipley56420
Jermaine Gresham35150
Reggie Kelly1190
Cedric Benson0100
Bernard Scott0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.7%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

2.11%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.9%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.24
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+0.33