Closing spread
BAL -2.5
Total
39.5
Model margin
+0.3est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.028EPA / play-0.042
- 41.8%Success rate44.3%
- +0.133EPA / dropback+0.055
- -0.102EPA / rush-0.191
- 7.3%Explosive rate7.6%
- +2.93CPOE+0.88
- 38.4%Third-down rate39.8%
- 57.9%Red-zone TD rate55.0%
- 1.78Points / drive1.45
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 30–25 since 1999
Meetings average 43 points. CIN are 28-25-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 17/39 | 154 | 1 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Rice | 16 | 87 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Willis McGahee | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Heap | 4 | 6 | 35 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 5 | 8 | 35 | 0 |
| Derrick Mason | 1 | 6 | 31 | 1 |
| Ray Rice | 4 | 6 | 30 | 0 |
| Ed Dickson | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Dennis Pitta | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| T.J. Houshmandzadeh | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
| Willis McGahee | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 16/35 | 167 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Benson | 23 | 78 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Bernard Scott | 5 | 17 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 3 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrell Owens | 3 | 11 | 57 | 0 |
| Chad Johnson | 4 | 9 | 44 | 0 |
| Jordan Shipley | 5 | 6 | 42 | 0 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 3 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| Reggie Kelly | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Cedric Benson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Bernard Scott | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
2.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.9%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.24
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+0.33