Closing spread
DAL -7
Total
41
Model margin
+3.1est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.097EPA / play-0.002
- 39.0%Success rate43.2%
- -0.053EPA / dropback+0.048
- -0.166EPA / rush-0.085
- 8.3%Explosive rate9.1%
- +0.87CPOE+2.25
- 33.1%Third-down rate40.4%
- 47.3%Red-zone TD rate65.7%
- 1.43Points / drive1.67
- 3.2%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 5–5 since 1999
Meetings average 53.9 points. DAL are 5-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 21/29 | 277 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 10 | 29 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 5 | 3 | 0.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Knox | 4 | 4 | 86 | 0 |
| Devin Hester | 4 | 6 | 77 | 1 |
| Greg Olsen | 1 | 1 | 39 | 1 |
| Matt Forte | 5 | 6 | 37 | 1 |
| Earl Bennett | 5 | 6 | 29 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 34/51 | 374 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marion Barber | 11 | 31 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Felix Jones | 7 | 7 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Tony Romo | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Tashard Choice | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Austin | 10 | 15 | 142 | 0 |
| Roy Williams | 4 | 7 | 53 | 0 |
| Dez Bryant | 2 | 2 | 52 | 0 |
| Jason Witten | 5 | 8 | 51 | 0 |
| Martellus Bennett | 7 | 8 | 45 | 0 |
| Chris Gronkowski | 3 | 4 | 13 | 1 |
| Felix Jones | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Tashard Choice | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Marion Barber | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
4.80%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.5%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.49
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+0.17
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.15