2010 · Week 2

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Jay Cutler

27·20

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Tony Romo

Cowboys Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

DAL -7

Total

41

Model margin

+3.1est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

4.8%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapCowboys
  • -0.097EPA / play-0.002
  • 39.0%Success rate43.2%
  • -0.053EPA / dropback+0.048
  • -0.166EPA / rush-0.085
  • 8.3%Explosive rate9.1%
  • +0.87CPOE+2.25
  • 33.1%Third-down rate40.4%
  • 47.3%Red-zone TD rate65.7%
  • 1.43Points / drive1.67
  • 3.2%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 5–5 since 1999

Meetings average 53.9 points. DAL are 5-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W3DAL @ CHI14–31CHI
2022 · W8CHI @ DAL29–49DAL
2019 · W14DAL @ CHI24–31CHI
2016 · W3CHI @ DAL17–31DAL
2014 · W14DAL @ CHI41–28DAL
2013 · W14DAL @ CHI28–45CHI
2012 · W4CHI @ DAL34–18CHI
2007 · W3DAL @ CHI34–10DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–DAL
CHIQ1 15:0033Punt0–0
DALQ1 13:0157Turnover0–0
CHIQ1 10:0858Field goal3–0
DALQ1 7:31831Punt3–0
CHIQ1 3:5332Opp touchdown3–7
CHIQ1 2:44358Touchdown10–7
DALQ1 1:091378Touchdown10–14
CHIQ2 8:16779Touchdown17–14
DALQ2 3:38734Turnover17–14
CHIQ2 1:39825Field goal20–14
DALQ2 0:2000End of half20–14
DALQ3 15:00761Field goal20–17
CHIQ3 10:36539Punt20–17
DALQ3 7:141050Punt20–17
CHIQ3 3:10620Punt20–17
DALQ3 0:18518Punt20–17
CHIQ4 12:3639Punt20–17
DALQ4 10:27643Missed field goal20–17
CHIQ4 7:23466Touchdown27–17
DALQ4 5:16339Turnover27–17
CHIQ4 4:0132Punt27–17
DALQ4 2:45750Field goal27–20
CHIQ4 1:1700End of half27–20

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler21/2927730

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Forte10292.90
Chester Taylor461.50
Jay Cutler530.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Johnny Knox44860
Devin Hester46771
Greg Olsen11391
Matt Forte56371
Earl Bennett56290
Chester Taylor2290

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Romo34/5137412

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marion Barber11312.80
Felix Jones771.00
Tony Romo1-1-1.00
Tashard Choice1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Miles Austin10151420
Roy Williams47530
Dez Bryant22520
Jason Witten58510
Martellus Bennett78450
Chris Gronkowski34131
Felix Jones23120
Tashard Choice1260
Marion Barber0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

4.80%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.5%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.49
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.17
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.15