2014 · Week 14

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Tony Romo

41·28

Bears

Chicago

QB Jay Cutler

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 35°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

DAL -3.5

Total

50.5

Model margin

-2.5est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapBears
  • +0.117EPA / play-0.055
  • 46.6%Success rate44.2%
  • +0.286EPA / dropback-0.032
  • -0.068EPA / rush-0.104
  • 10.8%Explosive rate7.1%
  • +5.68CPOE-0.14
  • 47.6%Third-down rate38.4%
  • 70.8%Red-zone TD rate67.3%
  • 2.36Points / drive1.62
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 5–5 since 1999

Meetings average 53.9 points. CHI are 5-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W3DAL @ CHI14–31CHI
2022 · W8CHI @ DAL29–49DAL
2019 · W14DAL @ CHI24–31CHI
2016 · W3CHI @ DAL17–31DAL
2013 · W14DAL @ CHI28–45CHI
2012 · W4CHI @ DAL34–18CHI
2010 · W2CHI @ DAL27–20CHI
2007 · W3DAL @ CHI34–10DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–CHI
DALQ1 15:00734Punt0–0
CHIQ1 10:39911Punt0–0
DALQ1 5:51519Punt0–0
CHIQ1 3:1439Punt0–0
DALQ1 1:431251Touchdown7–0
CHIQ2 10:50885Touchdown7–7
DALQ2 6:131482Touchdown14–7
CHIQ2 0:0800End of half14–7
CHIQ3 15:00323Turnover14–7
DALQ3 13:59331Touchdown21–7
CHIQ3 12:3245Punt21–7
DALQ3 10:16456Touchdown28–7
CHIQ3 8:02723Punt28–7
DALQ3 5:46663Touchdown35–7
CHIQ3 2:09650Touchdown35–13
DALQ4 14:52431Field goal38–13
CHIQ4 12:351472Touchdown38–21
DALQ4 7:1700Touchdown38–21
CHIQ4 7:15434Touchdown38–28
DALQ4 6:09434Field goal41–28
CHIQ4 3:41965Turnover41–28
DALQ4 1:291-2End of half41–28

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Romo21/2620530

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeMarco Murray321795.61
Joseph Randle11717.01
Tony Romo2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dez Bryant68820
DeMarco Murray910490
Cole Beasley33422
Jason Witten23260
Gavin Escobar1161
Dwayne Harris0100

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler32/4634121

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Forte13262.01
Jay Cutler294.51

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Alshon Jeffery69951
Martellus Bennett1215841
Matt Forte89740
Brandon Marshall34610
Marquess Wilson25190
Josh Morgan1480

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.52.6%3.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.0%2.7%4.0%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

42.3%

Expected total

46.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.02
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.54