Closing spread
DAL -3.5
Total
50.5
Model margin
-2.5est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bears
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.117EPA / play-0.055
- 46.6%Success rate44.2%
- +0.286EPA / dropback-0.032
- -0.068EPA / rush-0.104
- 10.8%Explosive rate7.1%
- +5.68CPOE-0.14
- 47.6%Third-down rate38.4%
- 70.8%Red-zone TD rate67.3%
- 2.36Points / drive1.62
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 5–5 since 1999
Meetings average 53.9 points. CHI are 5-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 21/26 | 205 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMarco Murray | 32 | 179 | 5.6 | 1 |
| Joseph Randle | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 1 |
| Tony Romo | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dez Bryant | 6 | 8 | 82 | 0 |
| DeMarco Murray | 9 | 10 | 49 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 3 | 3 | 42 | 2 |
| Jason Witten | 2 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Gavin Escobar | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 |
| Dwayne Harris | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 32/46 | 341 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 13 | 26 | 2.0 | 1 |
| Jay Cutler | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alshon Jeffery | 6 | 9 | 95 | 1 |
| Martellus Bennett | 12 | 15 | 84 | 1 |
| Matt Forte | 8 | 9 | 74 | 0 |
| Brandon Marshall | 3 | 4 | 61 | 0 |
| Marquess Wilson | 2 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Josh Morgan | 1 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
42.3%
Expected total
46.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.02
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.54