Closing spread
CHI -2
Total
49
Model margin
+7.9est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Bears
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.062EPA / play+0.077
- 47.2%Success rate45.2%
- +0.087EPA / dropback+0.164
- +0.011EPA / rush-0.072
- 8.8%Explosive rate9.9%
- +0.26CPOE+4.85
- 35.6%Third-down rate42.7%
- 68.9%Red-zone TD rate64.4%
- 2.21Points / drive1.95
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 5–5 since 1999
Meetings average 53.9 points. CHI are 5-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 11/20 | 104 | 3 | 0 |
| Kyle Orton | 3/5 | 40 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMarco Murray | 18 | 146 | 8.1 | 0 |
| Joseph Randle | 9 | 53 | 5.9 | 1 |
| Tony Romo | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance Williams | 2 | 3 | 36 | 0 |
| Gavin Escobar | 2 | 2 | 32 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 2 | 3 | 20 | 1 |
| Miles Austin | 2 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Dez Bryant | 2 | 4 | 12 | 1 |
| Jason Witten | 1 | 3 | 10 | 1 |
| DeMarco Murray | 2 | 5 | 9 | 0 |
| James Hanna | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh McCown | 27/36 | 348 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 20 | 102 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Michael Bush | 8 | 38 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Josh McCown | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 1 | -7 | -7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Marshall | 6 | 8 | 100 | 0 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 5 | 9 | 84 | 1 |
| Matt Forte | 7 | 9 | 73 | 1 |
| Martellus Bennett | 5 | 6 | 43 | 0 |
| Earl Bennett | 2 | 2 | 18 | 1 |
| Michael Bush | 1 | 1 | 17 | 1 |
| Dante Rosario | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
69.5%
Expected total
47.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.40
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+5.23
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+7.87