2013 · Week 14

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Tony Romo

28·45

Bears

Chicago

QB Josh McCown

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 8°F · wind 14mph

Closing spread

CHI -2

Total

49

Model margin

+7.9est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapBears
  • +0.062EPA / play+0.077
  • 47.2%Success rate45.2%
  • +0.087EPA / dropback+0.164
  • +0.011EPA / rush-0.072
  • 8.8%Explosive rate9.9%
  • +0.26CPOE+4.85
  • 35.6%Third-down rate42.7%
  • 68.9%Red-zone TD rate64.4%
  • 2.21Points / drive1.95
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 5–5 since 1999

Meetings average 53.9 points. CHI are 5-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W3DAL @ CHI14–31CHI
2022 · W8CHI @ DAL29–49DAL
2019 · W14DAL @ CHI24–31CHI
2016 · W3CHI @ DAL17–31DAL
2014 · W14DAL @ CHI41–28DAL
2012 · W4CHI @ DAL34–18CHI
2010 · W2CHI @ DAL27–20CHI
2007 · W3DAL @ CHI34–10DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–CHI
DALQ1 15:001275Touchdown7–0
CHIQ1 9:021283Touchdown7–7
DALQ1 1:3548Punt7–7
CHIQ2 14:321065Touchdown7–14
DALQ2 8:58768Touchdown14–14
CHIQ2 5:22963Field goal14–17
DALQ2 1:33410Punt14–17
CHIQ2 0:47560Touchdown14–24
DALQ2 0:1000End of half14–24
CHIQ3 15:00643Field goal14–27
DALQ3 12:0236Punt14–27
CHIQ3 10:301585Touchdown14–35
DALQ3 2:20519Turnover on downs14–35
CHIQ3 0:22343Touchdown14–42
DALQ4 14:24868Touchdown21–42
CHIQ4 10:521049Field goal21–45
DALQ4 3:471175Touchdown28–45
CHIQ4 0:0600End of half28–45

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Romo11/2010430
Kyle Orton3/54000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeMarco Murray181468.10
Joseph Randle9535.91
Tony Romo1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terrance Williams23360
Gavin Escobar22320
Cole Beasley23201
Miles Austin24190
Dez Bryant24121
Jason Witten13101
DeMarco Murray2590
James Hanna1160

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh McCown27/3634840

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Forte201025.10
Michael Bush8384.80
Josh McCown3165.31
Alshon Jeffery1-7-7.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Marshall681000
Alshon Jeffery59841
Matt Forte79731
Martellus Bennett56430
Earl Bennett22181
Michael Bush11171
Dante Rosario11130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +22.9%5.6%7.1%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.3%2.7%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

1.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

69.5%

Expected total

47.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.40
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+5.23
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+7.87