2022 · Week 8

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Justin Fields

29·49

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

AT&T Stadium · open · matrixturf

Closing spread

DAL -10.5

Total

43

Model margin

+7.0est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapCowboys
  • -0.039EPA / play+0.031
  • 41.1%Success rate45.2%
  • -0.070EPA / dropback+0.082
  • -0.004EPA / rush-0.031
  • 10.4%Explosive rate9.6%
  • -4.05CPOE-1.95
  • 41.0%Third-down rate46.2%
  • 60.7%Red-zone TD rate71.3%
  • 1.78Points / drive2.26
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 5–5 since 1999

Meetings average 53.9 points. DAL are 5-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W3DAL @ CHI14–31CHI
2019 · W14DAL @ CHI24–31CHI
2016 · W3CHI @ DAL17–31DAL
2014 · W14DAL @ CHI41–28DAL
2013 · W14DAL @ CHI28–45CHI
2012 · W4CHI @ DAL34–18CHI
2010 · W2CHI @ DAL27–20CHI
2007 · W3DAL @ CHI34–10DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–DAL
DALQ1 15:001180Touchdown0–7
CHIQ1 10:18410Punt0–7
DALQ1 8:31869Touchdown0–14
CHIQ1 5:191275Touchdown7–14
DALQ2 13:41675Touchdown7–21
CHIQ2 10:503-5Punt7–21
DALQ2 9:23854Touchdown7–28
CHIQ2 6:481460Touchdown14–28
DALQ2 0:4010Turnover14–28
CHIQ2 0:2841Field goal17–28
CHIQ3 15:0037Punt17–28
DALQ3 13:1236Punt17–28
CHIQ3 12:01562Touchdown23–28
DALQ3 9:42775Touchdown23–35
CHIQ3 6:51312Opp touchdown23–42
CHIQ3 5:001495Touchdown29–42
DALQ4 13:40579Touchdown29–49
CHIQ4 10:351254Turnover on downs29–49
DALQ4 5:1266Punt29–49
CHIQ4 3:1730Punt29–49
DALQ4 1:2200End of half29–49

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Fields17/2315120
Trevor Siemian1/1500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Khalil Herbert16996.21
Justin Fields8607.51
David Montgomery15533.50
Velus Jones Jr.23316.50
Trestan Ebner2-5-2.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darnell Mooney55700
N'Keal Harry22241
David Montgomery33220
Dante Pettis45180
Cole Kmet22111
Equanimeous St. Brown1360
Velus Jones Jr.1350

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott21/2725021

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tony Pollard141319.43
Dak Prescott5346.81
Malik Davis8232.90
KaVontae Turpin11111.00
CeeDee Lamb111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
CeeDee Lamb57771
Dalton Schultz67740
Michael Gallup46490
Malik Davis22180
Tony Pollard11160
Peyton Hendershot22150
Jake Ferguson1111

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +10.55.9%7.2%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

1.64%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

67.5%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.26
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+7.05