Closing spread
DAL -10.5
Total
43
Model margin
+7.0est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.039EPA / play+0.031
- 41.1%Success rate45.2%
- -0.070EPA / dropback+0.082
- -0.004EPA / rush-0.031
- 10.4%Explosive rate9.6%
- -4.05CPOE-1.95
- 41.0%Third-down rate46.2%
- 60.7%Red-zone TD rate71.3%
- 1.78Points / drive2.26
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 5–5 since 1999
Meetings average 53.9 points. DAL are 5-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 17/23 | 151 | 2 | 0 |
| Trevor Siemian | 1/1 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khalil Herbert | 16 | 99 | 6.2 | 1 |
| Justin Fields | 8 | 60 | 7.5 | 1 |
| David Montgomery | 15 | 53 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Velus Jones Jr. | 2 | 33 | 16.5 | 0 |
| Trestan Ebner | 2 | -5 | -2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darnell Mooney | 5 | 5 | 70 | 0 |
| N'Keal Harry | 2 | 2 | 24 | 1 |
| David Montgomery | 3 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Dante Pettis | 4 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| Cole Kmet | 2 | 2 | 11 | 1 |
| Equanimeous St. Brown | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Velus Jones Jr. | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 21/27 | 250 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Pollard | 14 | 131 | 9.4 | 3 |
| Dak Prescott | 5 | 34 | 6.8 | 1 |
| Malik Davis | 8 | 23 | 2.9 | 0 |
| KaVontae Turpin | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb | 5 | 7 | 77 | 1 |
| Dalton Schultz | 6 | 7 | 74 | 0 |
| Michael Gallup | 4 | 6 | 49 | 0 |
| Malik Davis | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Peyton Hendershot | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Jake Ferguson | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
1.64%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
67.5%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.26
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+7.05