Closing spread
DAL -3
Total
41
Model margin
+0.7est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.041EPA / play+0.043
- 39.6%Success rate47.2%
- +0.005EPA / dropback+0.127
- -0.104EPA / rush-0.133
- 8.0%Explosive rate7.3%
- -0.76CPOE+3.18
- 36.4%Third-down rate43.3%
- 60.1%Red-zone TD rate62.6%
- 1.47Points / drive1.79
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 5–5 since 1999
Meetings average 53.9 points. DAL are 5-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 18/24 | 275 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 13 | 52 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Michael Bush | 10 | 29 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Kahlil Bell | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Marshall | 7 | 8 | 138 | 1 |
| Kellen Davis | 3 | 4 | 62 | 0 |
| Devin Hester | 3 | 4 | 38 | 1 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 3 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Michael Bush | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Dane Sanzenbacher | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 31/43 | 307 | 1 | 5 |
| Kyle Orton | 9/10 | 89 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMarco Murray | 11 | 24 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Felix Jones | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Kevin Ogletree | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Tony Romo | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Witten | 13 | 14 | 112 | 1 |
| Dez Bryant | 8 | 13 | 105 | 0 |
| Miles Austin | 4 | 6 | 57 | 1 |
| DeMarco Murray | 7 | 7 | 57 | 0 |
| Kevin Ogletree | 3 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Phillip Tanner | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Andre Holmes | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Dwayne Harris | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
7.42%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.9%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.80
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.69