2012 · Week 4

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Jay Cutler

34·18

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Tony Romo

Cowboys Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

DAL -3

Total

41

Model margin

+0.7est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapCowboys
  • -0.041EPA / play+0.043
  • 39.6%Success rate47.2%
  • +0.005EPA / dropback+0.127
  • -0.104EPA / rush-0.133
  • 8.0%Explosive rate7.3%
  • -0.76CPOE+3.18
  • 36.4%Third-down rate43.3%
  • 60.1%Red-zone TD rate62.6%
  • 1.47Points / drive1.79
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 5–5 since 1999

Meetings average 53.9 points. DAL are 5-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W3DAL @ CHI14–31CHI
2022 · W8CHI @ DAL29–49DAL
2019 · W14DAL @ CHI24–31CHI
2016 · W3CHI @ DAL17–31DAL
2014 · W14DAL @ CHI41–28DAL
2013 · W14DAL @ CHI28–45CHI
2010 · W2CHI @ DAL27–20CHI
2007 · W3DAL @ CHI34–10DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–DAL
DALQ1 15:00933Punt0–0
CHIQ1 9:321041Punt0–0
DALQ1 3:24424Punt0–0
CHIQ1 1:1033Punt0–0
DALQ2 14:50636Punt0–0
CHIQ2 11:221369Field goal3–0
DALQ2 4:1535Opp touchdown10–0
DALQ2 2:38980Touchdown10–7
CHIQ2 0:1400End of half10–7
CHIQ3 15:00573Touchdown17–7
DALQ3 11:54762Turnover17–7
CHIQ3 8:09326Turnover23–7
DALQ3 6:2510Opp touchdown24–7
DALQ3 6:11958Field goal24–10
CHIQ3 2:111077Field goal27–10
DALQ4 11:24940Turnover27–10
CHIQ4 8:30667Touchdown34–10
DALQ4 6:2823Turnover34–10
CHIQ4 5:5136Punt34–10
DALQ4 3:031089Touchdown34–18
CHIQ4 0:3400End of half34–18

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler18/2427520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Forte13524.00
Michael Bush10292.90
Kahlil Bell2126.00
Jay Cutler300.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Marshall781381
Kellen Davis34620
Devin Hester34381
Alshon Jeffery35320
Michael Bush1180
Dane Sanzenbacher0100
Matt Forte11-30

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Romo31/4330715
Kyle Orton9/108910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeMarco Murray11242.20
Felix Jones11313.00
Kevin Ogletree144.00
Tony Romo100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jason Witten13141121
Dez Bryant8131050
Miles Austin46571
DeMarco Murray77570
Kevin Ogletree35240
Phillip Tanner23200
Cole Beasley22140
Andre Holmes1170
Dwayne Harris0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +32.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

7.42%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.9%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.80
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.69