2025 · Week 3

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

14·31

Bears

Chicago

QB Caleb Williams

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 82°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

DAL -1.5

Total

49.5

Model margin

+2.4est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapBears
  • +0.109EPA / play+0.076
  • 47.2%Success rate45.7%
  • +0.177EPA / dropback+0.122
  • -0.007EPA / rush+0.007
  • 8.3%Explosive rate10.1%
  • +1.89CPOE-3.48
  • 41.3%Third-down rate42.0%
  • 61.6%Red-zone TD rate66.8%
  • 2.53Points / drive2.32
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 5–5 since 1999

Meetings average 53.9 points. CHI are 5-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W8CHI @ DAL29–49DAL
2019 · W14DAL @ CHI24–31CHI
2016 · W3CHI @ DAL17–31DAL
2014 · W14DAL @ CHI41–28DAL
2013 · W14DAL @ CHI28–45CHI
2012 · W4CHI @ DAL34–18CHI
2010 · W2CHI @ DAL27–20CHI
2007 · W3DAL @ CHI34–10DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–CHI
CHIQ1 15:003-2Punt0–0
DALQ1 13:13229Turnover0–0
CHIQ1 12:31571Touchdown0–7
DALQ1 10:351146Field goal3–7
CHIQ1 4:21165Touchdown3–14
DALQ1 4:10955Field goal6–14
CHIQ2 13:49411Punt6–14
DALQ2 12:09852Touchdown14–14
CHIQ2 7:57859Field goal14–17
DALQ2 4:1536Punt14–17
CHIQ2 2:25771Touchdown14–24
DALQ2 0:25112End of half14–24
DALQ3 15:00718Punt14–24
CHIQ3 10:031976Touchdown14–31
DALQ3 0:09635Turnover14–31
CHIQ4 13:32729Punt14–31
DALQ4 8:581685Turnover14–31
CHIQ4 4:4737Punt14–31
DALQ4 4:211058Turnover14–31
CHIQ4 0:5200End of half14–31

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott31/4025112
Joe Milton III3/54101

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Javonte Williams10767.60
Miles Sanders9414.60
KaVontae Turpin144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jake Ferguson1314820
George Pickens59681
KaVontae Turpin23640
Jalen Tolbert36240
Ryan Flournoy23210
Javonte Williams55160
Miles Sanders33120
Luke Schoonmaker1150

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Caleb Williams19/2829840

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
D'Andre Swift13332.50
Kyle Monangai6162.70
Olamide Zaccheaus11212.00
Caleb Williams5122.40
DJ Moore372.30
Luther Burden III177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Luther Burden III331011
Rome Odunze37621
D'Andre Swift34450
Colston Loveland13310
Olamide Zaccheaus34240
DJ Moore45211
Cole Kmet11101
Kyle Monangai1140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -1.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

2.10%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.5%

Expected total

46.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.68
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.39