Closing spread
DAL -1.5
Total
49.5
Model margin
+2.4est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bears
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.109EPA / play+0.076
- 47.2%Success rate45.7%
- +0.177EPA / dropback+0.122
- -0.007EPA / rush+0.007
- 8.3%Explosive rate10.1%
- +1.89CPOE-3.48
- 41.3%Third-down rate42.0%
- 61.6%Red-zone TD rate66.8%
- 2.53Points / drive2.32
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 5–5 since 1999
Meetings average 53.9 points. CHI are 5-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 31/40 | 251 | 1 | 2 |
| Joe Milton III | 3/5 | 41 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javonte Williams | 10 | 76 | 7.6 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 9 | 41 | 4.6 | 0 |
| KaVontae Turpin | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Ferguson | 13 | 14 | 82 | 0 |
| George Pickens | 5 | 9 | 68 | 1 |
| KaVontae Turpin | 2 | 3 | 64 | 0 |
| Jalen Tolbert | 3 | 6 | 24 | 0 |
| Ryan Flournoy | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Javonte Williams | 5 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 3 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Luke Schoonmaker | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | 19/28 | 298 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Andre Swift | 13 | 33 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Kyle Monangai | 6 | 16 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Caleb Williams | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Luther Burden III | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luther Burden III | 3 | 3 | 101 | 1 |
| Rome Odunze | 3 | 7 | 62 | 1 |
| D'Andre Swift | 3 | 4 | 45 | 0 |
| Colston Loveland | 1 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 4 | 5 | 21 | 1 |
| Cole Kmet | 1 | 1 | 10 | 1 |
| Kyle Monangai | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
2.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.5%
Expected total
46.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.68
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.39