Closing spread
CHI -3
Total
41
Model margin
-2.9est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
6.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bears
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.109EPA / play-0.128
- 45.8%Success rate38.4%
- +0.230EPA / dropback-0.087
- -0.071EPA / rush-0.190
- 9.6%Explosive rate6.6%
- +4.58CPOE-3.34
- 43.2%Third-down rate34.3%
- 61.4%Red-zone TD rate49.0%
- 2.23Points / drive1.34
- 2.3%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 5–5 since 1999
Meetings average 53.9 points. CHI are 5-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 22/35 | 329 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marion Barber | 15 | 102 | 6.8 | 1 |
| Julius Jones | 7 | 26 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Tyson Thompson | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rex Grossman | 15/32 | 195 | 0 | 3 |
| Robbie Gould | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Benson | 16 | 46 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Adrian Peterson | 6 | 17 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Rex Grossman | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
6.90%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
41.3%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.85
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-3.64
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.92