Closing spread
CHI -3
Total
41
Model margin
-2.9est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
6.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bears
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.109EPA / play-0.128
- 45.8%Success rate38.4%
- +0.230EPA / dropback-0.087
- -0.071EPA / rush-0.190
- 9.6%Explosive rate6.6%
- +4.58CPOE-3.34
- 43.2%Third-down rate34.3%
- 61.4%Red-zone TD rate49.0%
- 2.23Points / drive1.34
- 2.3%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 5–5 since 1999
Meetings average 53.9 points. CHI are 5-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DAL–CHI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DAL | Q1 12:54 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CHI | Q1 10:37 | 14 | 64 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| DAL | Q1 3:09 | 3 | 5 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| CHI | Q1 1:05 | 3 | 17 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| DAL | Q2 14:49 | 4 | 10 | Punt | 0–3 |
| CHI | Q2 12:19 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–3 |
| DAL | Q2 10:46 | 7 | 67 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| CHI | Q2 8:49 | 4 | -2 | Punt | 3–3 |
| DAL | Q2 6:27 | 8 | 41 | Missed field goal | 3–3 |
| CHI | Q2 2:05 | 6 | 12 | Turnover on downs | 3–3 |
| DAL | Q2 1:11 | 4 | 8 | Punt | 3–3 |
| CHI | Q2 0:38 | 4 | -8 | Turnover on downs | 3–3 |
| DAL | Q3 15:00 | 9 | 89 | Touchdown | 10–3 |
| CHI | Q3 10:14 | 6 | 91 | Touchdown | 10–10 |
| DAL | Q3 7:14 | 11 | 98 | Touchdown | 17–10 |
| CHI | Q3 1:18 | 2 | 10 | Turnover | 17–10 |
| DAL | Q3 0:30 | 7 | 24 | Field goal | 20–10 |
| CHI | Q4 12:10 | 1 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 27–10 |
| CHI | Q4 11:49 | 8 | 24 | Punt | 27–10 |
| DAL | Q4 8:53 | 8 | 78 | Touchdown | 34–10 |
| CHI | Q4 3:20 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 34–10 |
| DAL | Q4 3:09 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 34–10 |
| CHI | Q4 1:06 | 2 | 9 | End of half | 34–10 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 22/35 | 329 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marion Barber | 15 | 102 | 6.8 | 1 |
| Julius Jones | 7 | 26 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Tyson Thompson | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rex Grossman | 15/32 | 195 | 0 | 3 |
| Robbie Gould | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Benson | 16 | 46 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Adrian Peterson | 6 | 17 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Rex Grossman | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
6.90%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
41.3%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.85
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-3.64
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.92