Closing spread
DAL -3
Total
43
Model margin
-0.6est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bears
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.111EPA / play-0.079
- 48.7%Success rate41.1%
- +0.192EPA / dropback-0.020
- -0.017EPA / rush-0.188
- 11.1%Explosive rate6.0%
- +1.10CPOE-1.71
- 47.2%Third-down rate36.4%
- 62.1%Red-zone TD rate55.7%
- 2.45Points / drive1.50
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 5–5 since 1999
Meetings average 53.9 points. CHI are 5-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 27/49 | 334 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 19 | 81 | 4.3 | 2 |
| Dak Prescott | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Gallup | 6 | 10 | 109 | 0 |
| Amari Cooper | 6 | 8 | 83 | 1 |
| Blake Jarwin | 6 | 7 | 50 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 2 | 5 | 43 | 0 |
| Jason Witten | 5 | 7 | 37 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 2 | 5 | 12 | 0 |
| Jamize Olawale | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tavon Austin | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Cedrick Wilson Jr. | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Trubisky | 23/31 | 244 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Montgomery | 20 | 86 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 10 | 63 | 6.3 | 1 |
| Tarik Cohen | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.P. Holtz | 3 | 3 | 56 | 0 |
| Allen Robinson | 5 | 8 | 48 | 2 |
| Anthony Miller | 3 | 4 | 42 | 1 |
| Jesper Horsted | 4 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | 1 | 33 | 0 |
| Tarik Cohen | 6 | 6 | 24 | 0 |
| Riley Ridley | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Javon Wims | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
7.41%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.4%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.36
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.62