2019 · Week 14

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

24·31

Bears

Chicago

QB Mitch Trubisky

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 44°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

DAL -3

Total

43

Model margin

-0.6est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapBears
  • +0.111EPA / play-0.079
  • 48.7%Success rate41.1%
  • +0.192EPA / dropback-0.020
  • -0.017EPA / rush-0.188
  • 11.1%Explosive rate6.0%
  • +1.10CPOE-1.71
  • 47.2%Third-down rate36.4%
  • 62.1%Red-zone TD rate55.7%
  • 2.45Points / drive1.50
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 5–5 since 1999

Meetings average 53.9 points. CHI are 5-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W3DAL @ CHI14–31CHI
2022 · W8CHI @ DAL29–49DAL
2016 · W3CHI @ DAL17–31DAL
2014 · W14DAL @ CHI41–28DAL
2013 · W14DAL @ CHI28–45CHI
2012 · W4CHI @ DAL34–18CHI
2010 · W2CHI @ DAL27–20CHI
2007 · W3DAL @ CHI34–10DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–CHI
DALQ1 15:001775Touchdown7–0
CHIQ1 6:03850Turnover7–0
DALQ1 1:3635Punt7–0
CHIQ1 0:17746Touchdown7–7
DALQ2 12:1331Punt7–7
CHIQ2 11:15646Field goal7–10
DALQ2 8:06652Missed field goal7–10
CHIQ2 5:001468Touchdown7–17
DALQ2 0:1000End of half7–17
CHIQ3 15:001279Touchdown7–24
DALQ3 8:1830Punt7–24
CHIQ3 7:4932Punt7–24
DALQ3 6:2030Punt7–24
CHIQ3 4:20314Turnover7–24
DALQ3 2:58954Touchdown14–24
CHIQ4 14:55450Touchdown14–31
DALQ4 13:2230Punt14–31
CHIQ4 12:5033Punt14–31
DALQ4 11:21745Turnover on downs14–31
CHIQ4 9:0938Punt14–31
DALQ4 7:4310100Touchdown21–31
CHIQ4 4:29617Punt21–31
DALQ4 1:50877Field goal24–31
CHIQ4 0:0800End of half24–31

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott27/4933410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ezekiel Elliott19814.32
Dak Prescott310.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Gallup6101090
Amari Cooper68831
Blake Jarwin67500
Randall Cobb25430
Jason Witten57370
Ezekiel Elliott25120
Jamize Olawale0100
Tavon Austin0200
Cedrick Wilson Jr.0100

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mitchell Trubisky23/3124431

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Montgomery20864.30
Mitchell Trubisky10636.31
Tarik Cohen372.30
Cordarrelle Patterson1-5-5.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
J.P. Holtz33560
Allen Robinson58482
Anthony Miller34421
Jesper Horsted44360
Cordarrelle Patterson11330
Tarik Cohen66240
Riley Ridley1150
Javon Wims0300
David Montgomery0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

7.41%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.4%

Expected total

43.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.36
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.62