2016 · Week 3

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Brian Hoyer

17·31

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

DAL -6.5

Total

45

Model margin

+2.3est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapCowboys
  • -0.042EPA / play+0.126
  • 44.1%Success rate48.6%
  • -0.001EPA / dropback+0.226
  • -0.111EPA / rush+0.006
  • 10.0%Explosive rate9.8%
  • -0.10CPOE+4.07
  • 37.8%Third-down rate43.8%
  • 52.5%Red-zone TD rate70.2%
  • 1.41Points / drive2.52
  • 2.9%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 5–5 since 1999

Meetings average 53.9 points. DAL are 5-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W3DAL @ CHI14–31CHI
2022 · W8CHI @ DAL29–49DAL
2019 · W14DAL @ CHI24–31CHI
2014 · W14DAL @ CHI41–28DAL
2013 · W14DAL @ CHI28–45CHI
2012 · W4CHI @ DAL34–18CHI
2010 · W2CHI @ DAL27–20CHI
2007 · W3DAL @ CHI34–10DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–DAL
DALQ1 15:001075Touchdown0–7
CHIQ1 9:30411Punt0–7
DALQ1 6:53954Field goal0–10
CHIQ1 1:5437Punt0–10
DALQ1 0:20972Touchdown0–17
CHIQ2 11:11664Field goal3–17
DALQ2 7:471273Touchdown3–24
CHIQ2 0:38632End of half3–24
CHIQ3 15:0035Punt3–24
DALQ3 13:05246Turnover3–24
CHIQ3 12:021163Touchdown10–24
DALQ3 7:0839Punt10–24
CHIQ3 5:052-3Turnover10–24
DALQ3 4:2137Missed field goal10–24
CHIQ3 3:29523Punt10–24
DALQ3 0:371288Touchdown10–31
CHIQ4 9:02880Touchdown17–31
DALQ4 6:28522Punt17–31
CHIQ4 4:00745Turnover17–31
DALQ4 2:1031Punt17–31
CHIQ4 1:39863End of half17–31

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brian Hoyer30/4931720

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jordan Howard9455.00
Jeremy Langford33110.30
Brian Hoyer221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zach Miller89782
Alshon Jeffery57700
Kevin White614620
Jordan Howard46470
Cameron Meredith23240
Eddie Royal33210
Jeremy Langford23150

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott19/2424810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ezekiel Elliott301404.70
Dak Prescott4369.01
Alfred Morris5193.81
Lucky Whitehead133.00
Lance Dunbar111.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terrance Williams44880
Cole Beasley77730
Dez Bryant36401
Jason Witten22250
Ezekiel Elliott22200
Alfred Morris1120
Brice Butler0100
Geoff Swaim0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

4.72%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.3%

Expected total

45.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.50
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.01
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+2.31