Closing spread
DAL -6.5
Total
45
Model margin
+2.3est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.042EPA / play+0.126
- 44.1%Success rate48.6%
- -0.001EPA / dropback+0.226
- -0.111EPA / rush+0.006
- 10.0%Explosive rate9.8%
- -0.10CPOE+4.07
- 37.8%Third-down rate43.8%
- 52.5%Red-zone TD rate70.2%
- 1.41Points / drive2.52
- 2.9%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 5–5 since 1999
Meetings average 53.9 points. DAL are 5-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Hoyer | 30/49 | 317 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Howard | 9 | 45 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Jeremy Langford | 3 | 31 | 10.3 | 0 |
| Brian Hoyer | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Miller | 8 | 9 | 78 | 2 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 5 | 7 | 70 | 0 |
| Kevin White | 6 | 14 | 62 | 0 |
| Jordan Howard | 4 | 6 | 47 | 0 |
| Cameron Meredith | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Eddie Royal | 3 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Jeremy Langford | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 19/24 | 248 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 30 | 140 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Dak Prescott | 4 | 36 | 9.0 | 1 |
| Alfred Morris | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Lucky Whitehead | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Lance Dunbar | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance Williams | 4 | 4 | 88 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 7 | 7 | 73 | 0 |
| Dez Bryant | 3 | 6 | 40 | 1 |
| Jason Witten | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Alfred Morris | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Brice Butler | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Geoff Swaim | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
4.72%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.3%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.50
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-2.01
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+2.31