Closing spread
SD -7
Total
45.5
Model margin
+3.2est.
SD perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chargers
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 9–6 since 1999
JAX have won 3 straight. Meetings average 49.5 points. SD are 10-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Garrard | 15/23 | 173 | 1 | 4 |
| Luke McCown | 11/19 | 120 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashad Jennings | 9 | 38 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 12 | 31 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Luke McCown | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| David Garrard | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Mike Thomas | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Sims-Walker | 10 | 12 | 105 | 1 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 5 | 9 | 70 | 0 |
| Rashad Jennings | 4 | 5 | 50 | 0 |
| Mike Thomas | 4 | 8 | 43 | 0 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Ernest Wilford | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Kassim Osgood | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Tiquan Underwood | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
4.81%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.7%
Expected total
46.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.82
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+3.23
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.