Closing spread
KC -1
Total
39
Model margin
+2.9est.
KC perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.168EPA / play-0.123
- 35.2%Success rate36.4%
- -0.266EPA / dropback-0.113
- -0.069EPA / rush-0.139
- 8.1%Explosive rate8.0%
- -10.33CPOE-4.70
- 32.5%Third-down rate27.1%
- 42.9%Red-zone TD rate56.9%
- 1.23Points / drive1.20
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 9–3 since 1999
KC have won 6 straight. Meetings average 49.8 points. KC are 5-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brady Quinn | 10/17 | 66 | 0 | 2 |
| Josh Cribbs | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Harrison | 34 | 286 | 8.4 | 3 |
| Brady Quinn | 4 | 39 | 9.8 | 0 |
| Chris Jennings | 7 | 18 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Josh Cribbs | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chansi Stuckey | 5 | 6 | 41 | 0 |
| Jerome Harrison | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Evan Moore | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Josh Cribbs | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Mohamed Massaquoi | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 |
| Michael Gaines | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Brian Robiskie | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 22/40 | 331 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Charles | 25 | 154 | 6.2 | 1 |
| Matt Cassel | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Javarris Williams | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Chambers | 5 | 5 | 114 | 1 |
| Brad Cottam | 4 | 5 | 62 | 0 |
| Dwayne Bowe | 4 | 10 | 56 | 0 |
| Mark Bradley | 3 | 5 | 52 | 1 |
| Leonard Pope | 3 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 2 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Terrance Copper | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jake O'Connell | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.9%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.67
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+2.92