2009 · Week 15

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Brady Quinn

41·34

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Matt Cassel

Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 39°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

KC -1

Total

39

Model margin

+2.9est.

KC perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapChiefs
  • -0.168EPA / play-0.123
  • 35.2%Success rate36.4%
  • -0.266EPA / dropback-0.113
  • -0.069EPA / rush-0.139
  • 8.1%Explosive rate8.0%
  • -10.33CPOE-4.70
  • 32.5%Third-down rate27.1%
  • 42.9%Red-zone TD rate56.9%
  • 1.23Points / drive1.20
  • 3.1%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 9–3 since 1999

KC have won 6 straight. Meetings average 49.8 points. KC are 5-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W15KC @ CLE21–7KC
2021 · W1CLE @ KC29–33KC
2020 · playoffsCLE @ KC17–22KC
2018 · W9KC @ CLE37–21KC
2015 · W16CLE @ KC13–17KC
2013 · W8CLE @ KC17–23KC
2012 · W14KC @ CLE7–30CLE
2010 · W2KC @ CLE16–14KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–KC
CLEQ1 15:001146Field goal3–0
KCQ1 10:13637Turnover3–0
CLEQ1 7:4136Turnover3–0
KCQ1 6:10642Field goal9–3
CLEQ1 4:1200Touchdown10–3
KCQ1 3:56521Punt10–3
CLEQ1 2:04840Field goal13–3
KCQ2 12:32672Touchdown13–10
CLEQ2 10:04523Punt13–10
KCQ2 6:46585Touchdown13–17
CLEQ2 4:1048Opp touchdown19–24
CLEQ2 2:4400Touchdown20–24
KCQ2 2:31826Punt20–24
CLEQ2 0:2600End of half20–24
KCQ3 15:0034Punt20–24
CLEQ3 13:59282Touchdown27–24
KCQ3 13:1638Punt27–24
CLEQ3 11:54426Turnover27–24
KCQ3 10:0732Punt27–24
CLEQ3 9:0836Punt27–24
KCQ3 7:09517Punt27–24
CLEQ3 5:181479Touchdown34–24
KCQ4 12:091064Field goal34–27
CLEQ4 8:08632Missed field goal34–27
KCQ4 4:26858Touchdown34–34
CLEQ4 2:20670Touchdown41–34
KCQ4 0:44455End of half41–34

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brady Quinn10/176602
Josh Cribbs0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jerome Harrison342868.43
Brady Quinn4399.80
Chris Jennings7182.60
Josh Cribbs382.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chansi Stuckey56410
Jerome Harrison23120
Evan Moore1170
Josh Cribbs1130
Mohamed Massaquoi1430
Michael Gaines0100
Brian Robiskie0100

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Cassel22/4033120

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamaal Charles251546.21
Matt Cassel2105.00
Javarris Williams111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Chambers551141
Brad Cottam45620
Dwayne Bowe410560
Mark Bradley35521
Leonard Pope35230
Jamaal Charles24160
Terrance Copper0100
Jake O'Connell0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +13.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

2.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.9%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.67
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+2.92