Closing spread
NO -4.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+2.3est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Saints
- OutAnthony WatersLBHamstring· DNP
- OutChris IvoryRBKnee· DNP
- OutZach StriefTKnee· DNP
- ProbableJon StinchcombTNot Injury Related· DNP
- ProbableJonathan VilmaLBGroin· Full
49ers
- OutEric HeitmannCFibula· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- DoubtfulChilo RachalGStinger· DNP
- DoubtfulKyle WilliamsWRToe· Limited
- DoubtfulTed GinnWRKnee· DNP
- DoubtfulWilliam JamesCBAnkle· DNP
- QuestionablePhillip AdamsCBHamstring· Full
- DNPDelanie WalkerTENot Injury Related
- ProbableAdam SnyderGIllness· Full
- ProbableAhmad BrooksLBElbow· Full
- ProbableAlex BooneTCalf· Full
- ProbablePatrick WillisLBKnee· Full
Win probability
- 49ers
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.039EPA / play-0.055
- 46.2%Success rate38.8%
- +0.121EPA / dropback-0.024
- -0.117EPA / rush-0.102
- 8.0%Explosive rate8.8%
- +5.83CPOE-4.51
- 48.8%Third-down rate33.2%
- 58.2%Red-zone TD rate55.8%
- 1.88Points / drive1.30
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 12–9 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 49.9 points. SF are 10-11 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NO–SF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 5 | Safety | 2–0 |
| NO | Q1 13:28 | 7 | 46 | Touchdown | 9–0 |
| SF | Q1 9:33 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 9–0 |
| NO | Q1 7:26 | 5 | 12 | Punt | 9–0 |
| SF | Q1 5:24 | 5 | 22 | Turnover | 9–0 |
| NO | Q1 3:29 | 5 | 12 | Punt | 9–0 |
| SF | Q1 0:35 | 12 | 82 | Touchdown | 9–7 |
| NO | Q2 9:52 | 6 | 16 | Punt | 9–7 |
| SF | Q2 6:42 | 10 | 80 | Turnover | 9–7 |
| NO | Q2 1:00 | 4 | 23 | End of half | 9–7 |
| NO | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 50 | Punt | 9–7 |
| SF | Q3 10:27 | 6 | 86 | Touchdown | 9–14 |
| NO | Q3 6:51 | 11 | 41 | Touchdown | 16–14 |
| SF | Q3 1:43 | 3 | 14 | Punt | 16–14 |
| NO | Q4 15:00 | 3 | 7 | Field goal | 19–14 |
| SF | Q4 13:31 | 6 | 29 | Turnover | 19–14 |
| NO | Q4 11:09 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 19–14 |
| SF | Q4 8:45 | 5 | 9 | Punt | 19–14 |
| NO | Q4 6:58 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 19–14 |
| NO | Q4 5:27 | 5 | 13 | Field goal | 22–14 |
| SF | Q4 2:12 | 8 | 82 | Touchdown | 22–22 |
| NO | Q4 1:19 | 5 | 56 | Field goal | 25–22 |
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 28/38 | 254 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Thomas | 18 | 46 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 5 | 4 | 0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marques Colston | 5 | 8 | 67 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 8 | 8 | 57 | 0 |
| Jeremy Shockey | 3 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 4 | 5 | 30 | 1 |
| Devery Henderson | 3 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| David Thomas | 3 | 4 | 10 | 1 |
| Drew Brees | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Robert Meachem | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 23/32 | 275 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 20 | 112 | 5.6 | 1 |
| Alex Smith | 4 | 28 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Anthony Dixon | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 1 |
| Brian Westbrook | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vernon Davis | 4 | 7 | 78 | 0 |
| Josh Morgan | 6 | 8 | 70 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 7 | 9 | 56 | 1 |
| Michael Crabtree | 1 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Nate Byham | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Dominique Zeigler | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
2.31%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.4%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.09
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+2.34