Closing spread
PHI -6.5
Total
41
Model margin
+1.5est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.078EPA / play-0.043
- 44.2%Success rate40.5%
- +0.104EPA / dropback+0.013
- +0.029EPA / rush-0.145
- 11.1%Explosive rate7.9%
- +4.09CPOE-3.37
- 39.7%Third-down rate40.4%
- 62.2%Red-zone TD rate72.0%
- 1.97Points / drive1.59
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 7–4 since 1999
PHI have won 3 straight. Meetings average 54.1 points. DET are 6-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 21/34 | 284 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 16 | 120 | 7.5 | 3 |
| Mike Vick | 7 | 37 | 5.3 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Mike Bell | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeSean Jackson | 4 | 7 | 135 | 1 |
| Jason Avant | 3 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Brent Celek | 3 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 3 | 6 | 26 | 1 |
| Riley Cooper | 1 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Garrett Mills | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 4 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Mike Bell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Hill | 25/45 | 335 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahvid Best | 17 | 78 | 4.6 | 2 |
| Shaun Hill | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Aaron Brown | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Maurice Morris | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahvid Best | 9 | 14 | 154 | 1 |
| Brandon Pettigrew | 7 | 8 | 108 | 0 |
| Calvin Johnson | 4 | 11 | 50 | 1 |
| Aaron Brown | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Tony Scheffler | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Nate Burleson | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Bryant Johnson | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
2.78%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.2%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.97
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.52