2010 · Week 2

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Michael Vick

35·32

Lions

Detroit

QB Shaun Hill

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

PHI -6.5

Total

41

Model margin

+1.5est.

DET perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapLions
  • +0.078EPA / play-0.043
  • 44.2%Success rate40.5%
  • +0.104EPA / dropback+0.013
  • +0.029EPA / rush-0.145
  • 11.1%Explosive rate7.9%
  • +4.09CPOE-3.37
  • 39.7%Third-down rate40.4%
  • 62.2%Red-zone TD rate72.0%
  • 1.97Points / drive1.59
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 7–4 since 1999

PHI have won 3 straight. Meetings average 54.1 points. DET are 6-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W11DET @ PHI9–16PHI
2022 · W1PHI @ DET38–35PHI
2021 · W8PHI @ DET44–6PHI
2019 · W3DET @ PHI27–24DET
2016 · W5PHI @ DET23–24DET
2015 · W12PHI @ DET14–45DET
2013 · W14DET @ PHI20–34PHI
2012 · W6DET @ PHI26–23DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–DET
DETQ1 15:00943Turnover0–0
PHIQ1 11:08561Touchdown7–0
DETQ1 8:39676Touchdown7–7
PHIQ1 5:39513Punt7–7
DETQ1 2:583-1Punt7–7
PHIQ1 1:0544Punt7–7
DETQ2 14:22612Field goal7–10
PHIQ2 12:28520Punt7–10
DETQ2 9:30380Touchdown7–17
PHIQ2 8:161174Touchdown14–17
DETQ2 3:53622Punt14–17
PHIQ2 1:12789Touchdown21–17
DETQ2 0:1300End of half21–17
PHIQ3 15:00619Punt21–17
DETQ3 11:513-1Punt21–17
PHIQ3 10:32961Touchdown28–17
DETQ3 5:54427Turnover28–17
PHIQ3 3:533-13Punt28–17
DETQ3 2:241348Turnover on downs28–17
PHIQ4 11:35419Punt28–17
DETQ4 9:223-6Punt28–17
PHIQ4 7:49568Touchdown35–17
DETQ4 6:17785Touchdown35–24
PHIQ4 4:133-3Punt35–24
DETQ4 3:01760Touchdown35–32
PHIQ4 1:5000Turnover on downs35–32
DETQ4 1:4840Turnover on downs35–32
PHIQ4 1:2600End of half35–32

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike Vick21/3428420

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy161207.53
Mike Vick7375.30
DeSean Jackson155.00
Mike Bell400.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeSean Jackson471351
Jason Avant35330
Brent Celek35270
Jeremy Maclin36261
Riley Cooper13200
Garrett Mills11140
LeSean McCoy4480
Mike Bell0100

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Shaun Hill25/4533522

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jahvid Best17784.62
Shaun Hill3165.30
Aaron Brown3134.30
Maurice Morris382.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jahvid Best9141541
Brandon Pettigrew781080
Calvin Johnson411501
Aaron Brown23100
Tony Scheffler1450
Nate Burleson1140
Bryant Johnson1440

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -6.54.2%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

2.78%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.2%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.97
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.52