Closing spread
PHI -2.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
+3.1est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.071EPA / play+0.034
- 45.0%Success rate43.3%
- +0.167EPA / dropback+0.092
- -0.071EPA / rush-0.047
- 10.1%Explosive rate9.0%
- +1.64CPOE+3.26
- 39.2%Third-down rate37.5%
- 66.0%Red-zone TD rate72.0%
- 2.54Points / drive2.11
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 7–4 since 1999
PHI have won 3 straight. Meetings average 54.1 points. PHI are 5-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 14/37 | 255 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 12 | 39 | 3.3 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 6 | 27 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Jameson Williams | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Jared Goff | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 5 | 8 | 107 | 0 |
| Jameson Williams | 4 | 7 | 88 | 1 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 2 | 12 | 42 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Brock Wright | 2 | 7 | 8 | 0 |
| Isaac TeSlaa | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 14/28 | 135 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 26 | 83 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Tank Bigsby | 4 | 34 | 8.5 | 0 |
| Jalen Hurts | 10 | 31 | 3.1 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Brown | 7 | 11 | 49 | 0 |
| Jahan Dotson | 2 | 2 | 43 | 0 |
| Dallas Goedert | 2 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| DeVonta Smith | 1 | 5 | 8 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Kylen Granson | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.4%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.49
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+3.11