2025 · Week 11

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Jared Goff

9·16

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Jalen Hurts

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 45°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

PHI -2.5

Total

46.5

Model margin

+3.1est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapEagles
  • +0.071EPA / play+0.034
  • 45.0%Success rate43.3%
  • +0.167EPA / dropback+0.092
  • -0.071EPA / rush-0.047
  • 10.1%Explosive rate9.0%
  • +1.64CPOE+3.26
  • 39.2%Third-down rate37.5%
  • 66.0%Red-zone TD rate72.0%
  • 2.54Points / drive2.11
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 7–4 since 1999

PHI have won 3 straight. Meetings average 54.1 points. PHI are 5-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W1PHI @ DET38–35PHI
2021 · W8PHI @ DET44–6PHI
2019 · W3DET @ PHI27–24DET
2016 · W5PHI @ DET23–24DET
2015 · W12PHI @ DET14–45DET
2013 · W14DET @ PHI20–34PHI
2012 · W6DET @ PHI26–23DET
2010 · W2PHI @ DET35–32PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–PHI
PHIQ1 15:00718Punt0–0
DETQ1 12:16312Turnover0–0
PHIQ1 11:0832Field goal0–3
DETQ1 9:433-6Punt0–3
PHIQ1 8:19422Punt0–3
DETQ1 5:36748Punt0–3
PHIQ1 1:1932Punt0–3
DETQ2 14:4749Turnover on downs0–3
PHIQ2 13:0230Punt0–3
DETQ2 12:3848Turnover on downs0–3
PHIQ2 11:16827Field goal0–6
DETQ2 6:02374Touchdown6–6
PHIQ2 5:051067Touchdown6–13
DETQ2 0:1600End of half6–13
DETQ3 15:00633Turnover on downs6–13
PHIQ3 12:1539Punt6–13
DETQ3 10:30969Turnover on downs6–13
PHIQ3 5:10529Punt6–13
DETQ3 2:57740Turnover on downs6–13
PHIQ3 1:151145Field goal6–16
DETQ4 10:15411Punt6–16
PHIQ4 9:06426Punt6–16
DETQ4 6:14627Punt6–16
PHIQ4 5:0649Turnover on downs6–16
DETQ4 2:573-7Field goal9–16
PHIQ4 1:58617End of half9–16

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff14/3725511

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jahmyr Gibbs12393.30
David Montgomery6274.50
Jameson Williams199.00
Jared Goff1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jahmyr Gibbs581070
Jameson Williams47881
Amon-Ra St. Brown212420
David Montgomery11100
Brock Wright2780
Isaac TeSlaa0100

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jalen Hurts14/2813500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Saquon Barkley26833.20
Tank Bigsby4348.50
Jalen Hurts10313.11

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Brown711490
Jahan Dotson22430
Dallas Goedert25240
DeVonta Smith1580
Saquon Barkley1270
Kylen Granson1240

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.53.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.4%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.49
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+3.11