2016 · Week 5

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Carson Wentz

23·24

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

PHI -3.5

Total

46

Model margin

+1.4est.

DET perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapLions
  • -0.017EPA / play+0.054
  • 43.8%Success rate45.4%
  • +0.046EPA / dropback+0.166
  • -0.121EPA / rush-0.187
  • 8.2%Explosive rate7.8%
  • -0.81CPOE+0.07
  • 38.3%Third-down rate42.7%
  • 59.4%Red-zone TD rate53.3%
  • 1.86Points / drive2.05
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 7–4 since 1999

PHI have won 3 straight. Meetings average 54.1 points. DET are 6-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W11DET @ PHI9–16PHI
2022 · W1PHI @ DET38–35PHI
2021 · W8PHI @ DET44–6PHI
2019 · W3DET @ PHI27–24DET
2015 · W12PHI @ DET14–45DET
2013 · W14DET @ PHI20–34PHI
2012 · W6DET @ PHI26–23DET
2010 · W2PHI @ DET35–32PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–DET
DETQ1 15:001175Touchdown0–7
PHIQ1 9:37621Punt0–7
DETQ1 6:021153Touchdown0–14
PHIQ1 0:53980Touchdown7–14
DETQ2 10:211371Touchdown7–21
PHIQ2 3:081378Field goal10–21
PHIQ3 15:00975Touchdown17–21
DETQ3 9:1843Turnover17–21
PHIQ3 7:4732Field goal20–21
DETQ3 6:4738Punt20–21
PHIQ3 4:0734Punt20–21
DETQ3 1:2575Punt20–21
PHIQ4 12:011164Field goal23–21
DETQ4 6:4033Punt23–21
PHIQ4 4:59622Turnover23–21
DETQ4 2:34628Field goal23–24
PHIQ4 1:2810Turnover23–24
DETQ4 1:1700End of half23–24

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Wentz25/3323821

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Darren Sproles5459.00
Ryan Mathews11423.80
Carson Wentz2147.00
Josh Huff2105.00
Nelson Agholor155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jordan Matthews44650
Dorial Green-Beckham34430
Zach Ertz33370
Ryan Mathews55331
Nelson Agholor27270
Darren Sproles44230
Trey Burton1250
Josh Huff3351

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford19/2518030

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Theo Riddick11494.50
Matthew Stafford6162.70
Zach Zenner791.30
Golden Tate362.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Anquan Boldin44480
Golden Tate35390
Marvin Jones45371
Theo Riddick66332
Zach Zenner22230
Andre Roberts0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

7.18%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.7%

Expected total

45.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.17
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+1.35