Closing spread
PHI -3.5
Total
46
Model margin
+1.4est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.017EPA / play+0.054
- 43.8%Success rate45.4%
- +0.046EPA / dropback+0.166
- -0.121EPA / rush-0.187
- 8.2%Explosive rate7.8%
- -0.81CPOE+0.07
- 38.3%Third-down rate42.7%
- 59.4%Red-zone TD rate53.3%
- 1.86Points / drive2.05
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 7–4 since 1999
PHI have won 3 straight. Meetings average 54.1 points. DET are 6-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 25/33 | 238 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Sproles | 5 | 45 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Ryan Mathews | 11 | 42 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Carson Wentz | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Josh Huff | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Matthews | 4 | 4 | 65 | 0 |
| Dorial Green-Beckham | 3 | 4 | 43 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 3 | 3 | 37 | 0 |
| Ryan Mathews | 5 | 5 | 33 | 1 |
| Nelson Agholor | 2 | 7 | 27 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 4 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Trey Burton | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Josh Huff | 3 | 3 | 5 | 1 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 19/25 | 180 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Theo Riddick | 11 | 49 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 6 | 16 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Zach Zenner | 7 | 9 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anquan Boldin | 4 | 4 | 48 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 3 | 5 | 39 | 0 |
| Marvin Jones | 4 | 5 | 37 | 1 |
| Theo Riddick | 6 | 6 | 33 | 2 |
| Zach Zenner | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Andre Roberts | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
7.18%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.7%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.17
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+1.35