2015 · Week 12

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Mark Sanchez

14·45

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

DET -3

Total

46.5

Model margin

+5.2est.

DET perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapLions
  • -0.044EPA / play-0.019
  • 42.7%Success rate44.9%
  • -0.008EPA / dropback+0.045
  • -0.105EPA / rush-0.160
  • 8.7%Explosive rate7.6%
  • -0.86CPOE-0.09
  • 39.1%Third-down rate38.4%
  • 66.8%Red-zone TD rate66.7%
  • 1.56Points / drive1.90
  • 2.7%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 7–4 since 1999

PHI have won 3 straight. Meetings average 54.1 points. DET are 6-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W11DET @ PHI9–16PHI
2022 · W1PHI @ DET38–35PHI
2021 · W8PHI @ DET44–6PHI
2019 · W3DET @ PHI27–24DET
2016 · W5PHI @ DET23–24DET
2013 · W14DET @ PHI20–34PHI
2012 · W6DET @ PHI26–23DET
2010 · W2PHI @ DET35–32PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–DET
PHIQ1 15:001459Missed field goal0–0
DETQ1 9:354-5Punt0–0
PHIQ1 8:123-7Punt0–0
DETQ1 6:37865Touchdown0–7
PHIQ1 2:10780Touchdown7–7
DETQ2 14:201280Touchdown7–14
PHIQ2 7:533-7Punt7–14
DETQ2 7:20525Field goal7–17
PHIQ2 4:593-2Punt7–17
DETQ2 4:081188Touchdown7–24
PHIQ2 0:1200End of half7–24
DETQ3 15:001390Touchdown7–31
PHIQ3 7:093-5Turnover7–31
DETQ3 6:33414Touchdown7–38
PHIQ3 5:05621Punt7–38
DETQ3 2:0130Punt7–38
PHIQ3 0:253-2Punt7–38
DETQ4 14:18675Touchdown7–45
PHIQ4 10:42516Punt7–45
DETQ4 8:183-3Punt7–45
PHIQ4 6:03970Touchdown14–45
DETQ4 2:5631Punt14–45
PHIQ4 1:0525End of half14–45

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Sanchez19/2719920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeMarco Murray14302.10
Kenjon Barner7304.30
Darren Sproles242.00
Mark Sanchez242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jordan Matthews35601
Trey Burton22490
Darren Sproles46210
Riley Cooper22160
Nelson Agholor22150
Miles Austin12120
Josh Huff11110
Brent Celek24101
Seyi Ajirotutu1240
Kenjon Barner1110

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford27/3833750

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ameer Abdullah16633.90
Joique Bell7253.61
Matthew Stafford2136.50
Theo Riddick263.00
George Winn310.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Calvin Johnson814933
Theo Riddick55621
Joique Bell23570
Golden Tate78501
Eric Ebron23280
Brandon Pettigrew12210
Lance Moore11140
Ameer Abdullah12120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.4%6.4%7.4%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

7.44%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.0%

Expected total

45.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.13
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.62
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.24