Closing spread
DET -3
Total
46.5
Model margin
+5.2est.
DET perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Lions
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.044EPA / play-0.019
- 42.7%Success rate44.9%
- -0.008EPA / dropback+0.045
- -0.105EPA / rush-0.160
- 8.7%Explosive rate7.6%
- -0.86CPOE-0.09
- 39.1%Third-down rate38.4%
- 66.8%Red-zone TD rate66.7%
- 1.56Points / drive1.90
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 7–4 since 1999
PHI have won 3 straight. Meetings average 54.1 points. DET are 6-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Sanchez | 19/27 | 199 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMarco Murray | 14 | 30 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Kenjon Barner | 7 | 30 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Mark Sanchez | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Matthews | 3 | 5 | 60 | 1 |
| Trey Burton | 2 | 2 | 49 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 4 | 6 | 21 | 0 |
| Riley Cooper | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Miles Austin | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Josh Huff | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Brent Celek | 2 | 4 | 10 | 1 |
| Seyi Ajirotutu | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Kenjon Barner | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 27/38 | 337 | 5 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ameer Abdullah | 16 | 63 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Joique Bell | 7 | 25 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Matthew Stafford | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Theo Riddick | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| George Winn | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Johnson | 8 | 14 | 93 | 3 |
| Theo Riddick | 5 | 5 | 62 | 1 |
| Joique Bell | 2 | 3 | 57 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 7 | 8 | 50 | 1 |
| Eric Ebron | 2 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Brandon Pettigrew | 1 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Lance Moore | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
7.44%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.0%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.13
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+0.62
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.24