Closing spread
PHI -2.5
Total
54
Model margin
+3.9est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.004EPA / play+0.100
- 43.1%Success rate46.4%
- +0.083EPA / dropback+0.181
- -0.142EPA / rush-0.009
- 9.7%Explosive rate13.5%
- -3.33CPOE+2.43
- 42.9%Third-down rate39.3%
- 73.4%Red-zone TD rate56.7%
- 1.75Points / drive1.91
- 3.0%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 7–4 since 1999
PHI have won 3 straight. Meetings average 54.1 points. PHI are 5-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 10/25 | 151 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joique Bell | 23 | 69 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Theo Riddick | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 6 | -1 | -0.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joique Bell | 4 | 7 | 58 | 0 |
| Calvin Johnson | 3 | 5 | 52 | 0 |
| Brandon Pettigrew | 1 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Nate Burleson | 2 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| Dorin Dickerson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kris Durham | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Foles | 11/22 | 179 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 29 | 217 | 7.5 | 2 |
| Chris Polk | 4 | 50 | 12.5 | 1 |
| Nick Foles | 6 | 23 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Bryce Brown | 6 | 19 | 3.2 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 1 | -10 | -10.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riley Cooper | 3 | 10 | 74 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 4 | 6 | 59 | 1 |
| Brent Celek | 2 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Brad Smith | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.5%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.65
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+3.90