2013 · Week 14

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

20·34

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Nick Foles

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 27°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

PHI -2.5

Total

54

Model margin

+3.9est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapEagles
  • -0.004EPA / play+0.100
  • 43.1%Success rate46.4%
  • +0.083EPA / dropback+0.181
  • -0.142EPA / rush-0.009
  • 9.7%Explosive rate13.5%
  • -3.33CPOE+2.43
  • 42.9%Third-down rate39.3%
  • 73.4%Red-zone TD rate56.7%
  • 1.75Points / drive1.91
  • 3.0%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 7–4 since 1999

PHI have won 3 straight. Meetings average 54.1 points. PHI are 5-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W11DET @ PHI9–16PHI
2022 · W1PHI @ DET38–35PHI
2021 · W8PHI @ DET44–6PHI
2019 · W3DET @ PHI27–24DET
2016 · W5PHI @ DET23–24DET
2015 · W12PHI @ DET14–45DET
2012 · W6DET @ PHI26–23DET
2010 · W2PHI @ DET35–32PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–PHI
DETQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
PHIQ1 13:313-2Punt0–0
DETQ1 11:281057Turnover0–0
PHIQ1 4:4730Punt0–0
DETQ1 3:18850Turnover0–0
PHIQ2 14:1231Punt0–0
DETQ2 13:1430Punt0–0
PHIQ2 12:1910Turnover0–0
DETQ2 12:06520Touchdown8–0
PHIQ2 10:02517Punt8–0
DETQ2 7:2534Punt8–0
PHIQ2 5:501374Turnover on downs8–0
DETQ2 0:4928End of half8–0
PHIQ3 15:00617Punt8–0
DETQ3 13:12839Punt8–0
PHIQ3 8:3434Opp touchdown14–0
PHIQ3 6:37579Touchdown14–6
DETQ3 4:05621Punt14–6
PHIQ3 0:24665Touchdown20–14
DETQ4 14:3410Touchdown20–14
PHIQ4 14:20376Touchdown20–22
DETQ4 13:1340Punt20–22
PHIQ4 12:20769Touchdown20–28
DETQ4 8:18228Turnover20–28
PHIQ4 7:15655Touchdown20–34
DETQ4 2:5840Turnover on downs20–34
PHIQ4 2:33425End of half20–34

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford10/2515100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joique Bell23693.01
Theo Riddick4123.00
Matthew Stafford6-1-0.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Joique Bell47580
Calvin Johnson35520
Brandon Pettigrew13230
Nate Burleson25180
Dorin Dickerson0100
Kris Durham0300

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Nick Foles11/2217911

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy292177.52
Chris Polk45012.51
Nick Foles6233.81
Bryce Brown6193.20
DeSean Jackson1-10-10.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Riley Cooper310740
DeSean Jackson46591
Brent Celek23290
Brad Smith11130
LeSean McCoy1140
Zach Ertz0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.53.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

7.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.5%

Expected total

45.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.65
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+3.90